Week 4 College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections 2026-27
Week 4 of the 2026 college football season brought plenty of excitement, from big wins and thrilling finishes to surprising upsets. The results have already shifted bowl and playoff projections. Iowa’s stunning win over Michigan has opened up the Big Ten title race, while Florida and Mississippi State have made big strides with conference victories. For the first time since 2019, the Gators enter Week 5 undefeated.
Oregon also returned to Eugene with a road win over USC, adding another twist to the season. And the new 2026 playoff format, with automatic bids for Power 4 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, has made the postseason picture even more intriguing.
First-Round Games: The Battle Begins
The first round of the College Football Playoff (CFP) will be played at campus sites, giving higher-seeded teams home-field advantage. Games are set for Friday, Dec. 18, and Saturday, Dec. 19, and will air across ESPN, ABC, and TNT. Here are the matchups:
- Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
- Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
- Bonagura and Schlabach: No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Ohio State
- Bonagura: No. 10 Utah at No. 7 Alabama
- Schlabach: No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Alabama
- Bonagura: No. 9 Florida at No. 8 BYU
- Schlabach: No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Florida
Quarterfinals: The Road to Glory
The quarterfinals are scheduled for Jan. 1, with kickoff times to be announced on Selection Day (Dec. 6). Games will take place at major bowl venues, including the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Here are Bonagura and Schlabach’s predictions:
Quarterfinals Game 2
Bonagura: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
Quarterfinals Game 3
Bonagura and Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Georgia
Quarterfinals Game 4
Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 8 Florida vs. No. 1 Texas
Semifinals and Title Game: The Final Showdown
The semifinals and title game are set to be the high point of the college football season. The Capital One Orange Bowl and Allstate Sugar Bowl will host the semifinals on Jan. 14 and Jan. 15, respectively. The CFP National Championship game will be held at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25. Here are the predictions:
Capital One Orange Bowl
Bonagura: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 8 Florida vs. No. 4 Miami
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Bonagura: No. 4 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP National Championship
Bonagura: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 4 Miami vs. No. 2 Georgia
Bowl Season: A Feast of Football
Bowl season begins with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and ends with the CFP National Championship game. Here’s a look at the bowl matchups:
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Bonagura and Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: UMass vs. Louisiana
Frisco Football Classic
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: UCF vs. Western Michigan
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. South Florida
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Tulane
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Bonagura: Delaware vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Air Force
Puerto Rico Bowl
Bonagura: UMass vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Tulsa vs. Liberty
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Florida International
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Bonagura: Oregon State vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Washington vs. Cincinnati
New Orleans Bowl
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Delaware vs. James Madison
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Bonagura: UCF vs. Army
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. New Mexico
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Arizona vs. Oregon State
Frisco Bowl
Bonagura: NC State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Western Kentucky
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. UTSA
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Fresno State
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Dakota State
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. North Dakota State
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Bonagura: SMU vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Duke vs. Wisconsin
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UTSA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Minnesota
68 Ventures Bowl
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Cactus Bowl
Bonagura and Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Baylor
Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Temple
Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Florida
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Utah
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Houston
Valero Alamo Bowl
Bonagura and Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Oregon
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Bonagura: Duke vs. Auburn
Schlabach: SMU vs. Mississippi State
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Kentucky
ReliaQuest Bowl
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Old El Paso Sun Bowl
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. UCLA
Las Vegas Bowl
Bonagura and Schlabach: USC vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: USC vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Bowl
Bonagura and Schlabach: Penn State vs. LSU
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Bonagura: Baylor vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Army
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Wyoming
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Auburn
For a detailed breakdown of all the matchups, visit the full article here.
