Week 13 College Football Playoff Predictions and Scenarios Analysis
The College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee’s rankings always seem to spark debate. Fans and analysts love to argue about them, even though the regular season isn’t over yet.
Honestly, these rankings can feel a bit arbitrary this early. This article dives into a simulation of the current 12-team playoff bracket, mixing power ratings with some what-if matchups to see what might happen.
Are these predictions certain? Not at all. But they’re a fun glimpse into how the race for the national championship could shake out.
Contents
Questioning the Current CFP Ranking System
Why does the CFP Selection Committee release rankings before the regular season wraps up? It’s a question that’s been around for years.
With so many games left, these rankings often seem more like guesses than anything solid. And ranking 25 teams when only 12 get in? That just adds to the confusion.
Who really cares about the No. 21 team if they’re not making the playoffs? It’s hard to see the logic.
The Flaws in Early Rankings
One big problem with early rankings: they’re just not final. College football changes fast, sometimes overnight.
So, these rankings end up feeling like more of a PR move than a true reflection of who’s best. It’s kind of frustrating, honestly.
The Need for a Better System
Wouldn’t it make more sense to wait until the regular season ends before ranking anyone? That way, we’d know which teams actually deserve a shot.
Until then, everyone’s just left speculating and arguing. Maybe that’s part of the fun, but it sure gets old.
The Hypothetical 12-Team Playoff Bracket
To cut through all the noise, let’s look at a simulated 12-team playoff bracket. We used College Football Power Ratings to run these matchups.
It’s not perfect, but it gives us something to talk about. Here’s how things might play out:
Quarterfinal Matchups
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech: Tulane’s high ranking is shaky after that 22-point loss to UTSA. Texas Tech looks stronger and is expected to move on.
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma: Playing in Norman gives the Sooners a boost, but Notre Dame’s power ratings tip the scales. They’re picked to pull off the road win—something that’s never happened in a CFP first round.
- No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Ole Miss: Vaught Hemingway Stadium is a tough place to play. Ole Miss takes advantage and advances over Miami.
- No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon: This one’s almost a toss-up. Still, Oregon gets the edge at home in Autzen Stadium.
Semifinal Matchups
Things only get wilder as we move to the semifinals. The matchups are loaded with drama and talent.
Neutral Site Challenges
There’s always debate about using neutral sites for these games. Some folks think teams that earn a bye should get a home game, too.
But for this simulation, we’re sticking with the current setup:
- No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl): Texas Tech’s defense is tough, but Georgia’s quarterback play and skill guys give them the win.
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame (Rose Bowl): It’s a rematch from last year’s title game. Ohio State’s front seven is just too much for Notre Dame to handle.
- No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl): This one’s close, but Ole Miss sneaks past Texas A&M to keep their surprising run alive.
- No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 7 Oregon (Orange Bowl): Oregon gets a shot at revenge and makes good, taking down Indiana to move forward.
The Road to the Championship
As we get closer to the end, every game feels huge. The semifinal matchups are loaded with storylines and pressure.
Prime Time Showdowns
These games are going to draw massive crowds and even bigger TV numbers. Honestly, they could pass for championship matchups themselves:
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia (Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl): Another rematch, and this time Ohio State is picked to keep their repeat hopes alive by beating Georgia.
- No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 7 Oregon (Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl): Oregon’s power ratings are just a bit better, and that’s enough for them to get past Ole Miss.
The National Championship
It all comes down to one last game. Two heavyweights, one trophy. Who’s taking it home?
Ohio State vs. Oregon (Hard Rock Stadium – Miami)
Ohio State and Oregon are set to meet again, this time under the bright lights of Miami. They split their series last year, so there’s a bit of unfinished business hanging in the air.
Ohio State’s chasing a second straight title. Most folks seem to think they’ll be too much for Oregon, but hey, you never really know with these games.
Want the nitty-gritty details or just need to stay in the loop? Check out the original article on CBS Sports.
