Week 13 Bowl Projections: UNC and Newcomers Eye Postseason

As the college football season barrels toward its finale, bowl game talk is everywhere. With just two weeks left in the regular season, a handful of teams are fighting tooth and nail for a postseason invite.

North Carolina, led by first-year coach Bill Belichick, is right in the thick of it. They’re hoping to lock down a bowl spot—maybe even against the odds.

This article takes a look at the latest bowl projections. Which teams are clinging to hope? And what matchups might end up shaping the whole postseason?

North Carolina’s Road to Bowl Eligibility

North Carolina sits at 4-6 right now. They need two more wins to guarantee a bowl bid.

There’s actually another way in, though. If the Tar Heels manage just one more win, there’s a slim chance they could still sneak into the postseason.

They’ll close out the season against Duke and NC State. North Carolina probably won’t be favored in either game, but hey, stranger things have happened.

If not enough teams reach six wins, the bowl system starts digging deeper. They’ll look at teams moving up from the FCS and then at 5-7 teams with the highest academic progress rate (APR).

The Importance of APR

North Carolina’s got one of the top APRs in the country. Only Ohio State and Alabama are ahead of them, and both of those teams are already locked in for the postseason.

If the Tar Heels end up 5-7 and there’s a spot left after considering the transitional teams, their chances look pretty good. Still, it’s a tough road—sweeps by Duke and NC State wouldn’t be shocking.

Other Teams on the Brink

Missouri State, making its FBS debut, is sitting at 7-3 and first in line for a bowl invite. Delaware, also new to Conference USA, could join them with one more win.

After North Carolina, Auburn’s APR is next-best for a possible 5-7 team. They could notch their fifth win against Mercer this week.

All things considered, Missouri State looks like the safest bet for a bowl, unless something wild happens down the stretch.

Evergreen Notes on the College Football Playoff

This is only the second year for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The five highest-ranked conference champs get in, plus the top seven at-large teams.

The four best teams get first-round byes. Those games play out in the Cotton, Orange, Rose, and Sugar bowls on December 31 and January 1.

Teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 on December 19-20. That’s a lot of football in a short window—should be fun.

Projected Playoff and Bowl Matchups

Here’s what the latest projections are showing for the playoffs:

• Playoff (Dec. 19, 2025): 7 Ole Miss vs. 10 Alabama
• Playoff (Dec. 20, 2025): 5 Texas Tech vs. 12 North Texas
• Playoff (Dec. 20, 2025): 6 Oregon vs. 11 Virginia
• Playoff (Dec. 20, 2025): 8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Oklahoma

Winners from those games move on to the big bowls:

• Cotton (Dec. 31, 2025): 2 Indiana vs. Ole Miss/Alabama winner
• Orange (Jan. 1, 2026): 4 Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech/North Texas winner
• Rose (Jan. 1, 2026): 1 Ohio State vs. Notre Dame/Oklahoma winner
• Sugar (Jan. 1, 2026): 3 Georgia vs. Oregon/Virginia winner

Additional Bowl Matchups

Beyond the playoff, several other bowl matchups are on the horizon. Some of these are looking pretty intriguing, honestly:

• LA Bowl (Dec. 13, 2025): Pac-12 6 Arizona vs. MWC 1 San Diego State
• Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 16, 2025): Sun Belt Arkansas State vs. MAC Central Michigan
• Cure Bowl (Dec. 17, 2025): Sun Belt James Madison vs. G5/Open UConn
• 68 Ventures Bowl (Dec. 17, 2025): Sun Belt Troy vs. Open Kennesaw State
• Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 19, 2025): Sun Belt Old Dominion vs. Open Miami (Ohio)
• Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 19, 2025): SEC/ACC/AAC Florida State vs. Open USF
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 22, 2025): MWC UNLV vs. MAC Buffalo
• Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 23, 2025): Open Coastal Carolina vs. Open Jacksonville State
• New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 23, 2025): Sun Belt Southern Miss vs. CUSA Western Kentucky
• Frisco Bowl (Dec. 23, 2025): G5 Marshall vs. G5/Open Missouri State
• Hawai’i Bowl (Dec. 24, 2025): MWC Hawaii vs. American East Carolina
• GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26, 2025): Big Ten 8 Minnesota vs. MAC Western Michigan
• Rate Bowl (Dec. 26, 2025): Big Ten 7 Northwestern vs. Big 12 6 Kansas State
• First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26, 2025): Open California vs. Open Fresno State
• Military Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): American Navy vs. ACC 8 Louisville
• Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): Big Ten 6 Penn State vs. ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh
• Fenway Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): ACC 9 NC State vs. American Army
• Arizona Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): MWC Boise State vs. MAC 2 Ohio
• Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): Big 12 3 BYU vs. ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech
• New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): MWC New Mexico vs. Open Washington State
• Gator Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): ACC 2-4 Miami vs. SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt
• Texas Bowl (Dec. 27, 2025): Big 12 4 Iowa State vs. SEC 3-8 Missouri
• Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 29, 2025): ACC/SEC/Open Duke vs. SEC/ACC/Open Memphis
• Independence Bowl (Dec. 30, 2025): Big 12 7 Baylor vs. CUSA/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech
• Music City Bowl (Dec. 30, 2025): Big Ten 5 Illinois vs. SEC 3-8 LSU
• Alamo Bowl (Dec. 30, 2025): Big 12 2 Houston vs. Pac-12 2 USC
• ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31, 2025): Big Ten 3 Iowa vs. SEC 3-8 Texas
• Sun Bowl (Dec. 31, 2025): ACC 5-7 Clemson vs. Pac-12 5 Arizona State
• Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31, 2025): Big Ten 2 Michigan vs. SEC 2 Tennessee
• Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 31, 2025): Pac-12 3 Utah vs. Big Ten 4 Nebraska
• Armed Forces Bowl (Jan. 2, 2026): Open TCU vs. American UTSA
• Liberty Bowl (Jan. 2, 2026): Big 12 5 Cincinnati vs. SEC 3-8 Tulane
• Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Jan. 2, 2026): SEC 3-8 Kentucky vs. ACC 5-7 Wake Forest
• Holiday Bowl (Jan. 2, 2026): ACC 2-4 SMU vs. Pac-12 4 Washington
• Bahamas/TBD Bowl (Nov 21, 2025): MAC Toledo vs. CUSA Florida International

Teams and fans are buzzing, waiting to see how it all shakes out. Some of these matchups could go either way, and that’s half the fun, right?

If you’re after the latest projections or want to dig deeper, check out the New York Times’ Athletic section.