Week 11 College Football Playoff and Bowl Game Predictions

The College Football Playoff (CFP) landscape is always shifting, and Week 11 brought its share of drama and surprises. The Big Ten was especially wild—Indiana and Oregon barely escaped upsets, and Texas Tech’s win over BYU shook up the CFP conversation in a big way.

Looking ahead, ESPN experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach just dropped their latest projections for the playoff and bowl games. Curious about who’s in and who’s out? Let’s dig in.

College Football Playoff Structure

For the second straight year, the CFP is rolling with a 12-team format. Here’s how it works:

• Five highest-ranked conference champions
• Next seven highest-ranked teams

The top four teams get first-round byes. The other eight play first-round games at campus sites, which adds a bit of chaos and fun.

Quarterfinals and semifinals land in the New Year’s Six bowls, and everything wraps up with the national championship game on January 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

First-Round Games

The first round kicks off December 19 and 20. Bonagura and Schlabach have some interesting matchups on their lists:

• Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Georgia
• Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
• Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Texas Tech
• Schlabach: No. 11 Pittsburgh at No. 6 Ole Miss
• Both: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Oregon
• Schlabach: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Texas Tech
• Both: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Ole Miss
• Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

Bonagura thinks Texas Tech’s win over BYU exposed the Cougars’ offensive struggles, tipping the Big 12 in the Red Raiders’ favor. Schlabach, on the other hand, points to the ACC and Group of 5 races, where teams like Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, and Duke are all in the mix.

Quarterfinals and Semifinals

The quarterfinals, set for December 31 and January 1, promise some juicy showdowns if these projections hold up:

Quarterfinals

• Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana | Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
• Capital One Orange Bowl: Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama | Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Indiana
• Rose Bowl Game: Bonagura: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State | Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
• Allstate Sugar Bowl: Bonagura: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Texas A&M | Schlabach: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Texas A&M

Bonagura prefers to avoid conference rematches in the quarterfinals—makes sense, right? Schlabach is all about the possibility of marquee games like Georgia vs. Alabama or Notre Dame vs. Ohio State.

Semifinals

The semifinals are set for January 8 and 9. Here’s what the experts are thinking:

• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State | Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana | Schlabach: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas A&M

Both Bonagura and Schlabach see Ohio State and Texas A&M as favorites. Hard to argue, given how they’ve looked so far.

National Championship Game

The national title game is set for January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Bonagura and Schlabach split on their picks for the big showdown:

• Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
• Schlabach: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura likes the playoff format for sorting out the real champ, especially with so many contenders. Schlabach keeps coming back to Ohio State’s steady play, especially their defense and quarterback Julian Sayin, who’s in the Heisman conversation.

Bowl Season

Outside the CFP, bowl season brings 35 games, starting with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on December 13. Here are a few matchups Bonagura and Schlabach are projecting:

Notable Bowl Games

• Cricket Celebration Bowl: Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State | Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
• LA Bowl: Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State | Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State
• IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl: Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East Carolina | Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
• StaffDNA Cure Bowl: Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State | Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion
• 68 Ventures Bowl: Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Western Michigan | Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Say what you will, but these matchups bring a lot of variety—and honestly, that’s what makes bowl season such a blast for college football fans.

Additional Bowl Games

• Myrtle Beach Bowl: Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy | Schlabach: North Texas vs. James Madison
• Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Bonagura: South Florida vs. Clemson | Schlabach: UConn vs. Utah State
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV | Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV
• Boca Raton Bowl: Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Florida International | Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Miami (Ohio)
• New Orleans Bowl: Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion | Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Bonagura and Schlabach lay out a pretty fascinating set of potential matchups here. You can really see just how many different teams might end up in the postseason mix.

Curious to dig deeper? The full article on ESPN has more details and analysis if you’re interested.