Week 11 CFP Bracket Projections: Expert Predictions and Analysis

Week 11’s college football schedule has really shaken up the playoff and conference championship picture. As we creep toward the end of the season, the teams at the top of the US LBM Coaches Poll and the CFP top 25 have started to separate themselves.

Some big wins have locked in their spots—at least for now. Let’s dig into what’s changed, who’s rising, and which matchups might decide the new 12-team College Football Playoff field.

Week 11 Highlights: Top Teams Hold Their Ground

This week, the top four in the CFP rankings—No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana, No. 3 Texas A&M, and No. 4 Alabama—all got the job done. Their victories set up some pretty wild possibilities for the Big Ten and SEC title games.

Ohio State and Indiana look like they’re barreling toward a Big Ten showdown. Meanwhile, Texas A&M and Alabama seem destined to settle things in the SEC championship.

Big Ten Showdown: Ohio State vs. Indiana

Ohio State keeps rolling, hanging onto the top CFP spot. The Buckeyes are in a great position for the Big Ten title.

Indiana’s right there too, sitting at No. 2. If these two meet for the championship, it could end up being the game everyone’s talking about.

SEC Battle: Alabama vs. Texas A&M

Alabama, at No. 4, is still undefeated in the SEC. They’re not making it easy for anyone to catch them.

Texas A&M is right behind, ranked No. 3. That SEC title game might just decide who gets a top playoff seed.

ACC and Big 12 Developments

Things got messy in the ACC and Big 12 after Week 11. In the ACC, hopes for multiple playoff bids faded fast after Virginia and Louisville stumbled.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has pretty much taken control in the Big 12.

ACC Chaos: Virginia and Louisville Fall

It was a rough week for the ACC. No. 11 Virginia (No. 14 in CFP) lost to Wake Forest, and No. 15 Louisville (No. 15 CFP) fell to California.

Now, it looks like only the ACC champ has a shot at the playoff.

Big 12 Supremacy: Texas Tech’s Dominance

No. 9 Texas Tech (No. 8 CFP) made a statement by crushing previously unbeaten No. 8 BYU (No. 7 CFP). That win puts Texas Tech firmly in the driver’s seat in the Big 12.

Their playoff chances are looking better by the week.

Group of Five Contenders

The Group of Five race for a playoff spot just got interesting. South Florida is suddenly the favorite, while Memphis’s loss to Tulane has shaken things up.

South Florida’s Rise

South Florida made a big impression with a 55-23 win over Texas-San Antonio. That, plus Memphis’s loss, puts the Bulls in the lead for the Group of Five bid.

James Madison’s Back Door Entry

James Madison, from the Sun Belt, could sneak into the playoff as the top non-Power Four champ. With the American Athletic Conference beating up on itself, James Madison might just slide in.

Expert Projections for the 12-Team CFP Field

Now that the 12-team College Football Playoff is starting to take shape, USA TODAY Sports experts have weighed in. Here’s what they’re seeing:

• Ohio State and Alabama are favorites to win the Big Ten and SEC.
• Texas Tech leads the Big 12.
• Miami has a clear path to the ACC title, even with all the chaos.
• James Madison could grab a spot as the top non-Power Four conference champ.

Projected Final Bracket

Here’s how the 12-team CFP bracket is shaping up, based on Week 11 and what the experts are saying:

• Ohio State *
• Alabama *
• Indiana
• Texas A&M
• Texas Tech *
• Georgia
• Ole Miss
• Notre Dame
• Oregon
• Miami *
• Vanderbilt
• James Madison *

*Denotes one of five highest-ranked conference champions

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

The college football season keeps ramping up, and honestly, it’s anyone’s guess how the CFP race will shake out. Top teams have to keep pushing, no room for slip-ups now.

Meanwhile, you’ve got programs like James Madison and South Florida quietly plotting their own upsets. Maybe they’ll shake things up—who knows?

These next few weeks? Expect wild matchups, some heartbreak, and probably a few surprises nobody saw coming. Fans are in for a ride.

For a deeper dive into the current CFP projections, check out USA TODAY Sports.