Vanderbilt’s College Football Playoff Chances: Overrated or Underrated?
In the latest twist of the 2025 college football season, Vanderbilt’s recent victory over LSU has propelled them to No. 10 in the AP poll. This has sparked a lively debate about their College Football Playoff (CFP) prospects.
Despite their impressive ranking, Austin Mock’s Playoff projections model remains skeptical. Vanderbilt only gets an 8 percent chance to make the Playoff.
This skepticism stems from their poor performance against Alabama. Their defense has also shown vulnerability against weaker opponents.
As the season moves forward, Vanderbilt’s upcoming games against Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee will be crucial. Meanwhile, other teams like Louisville and Utah are also navigating their own conference chaos, making the Playoff race more unpredictable.
Contents
Vanderbilt’s Playoff Aspirations: A Closer Look
Vanderbilt’s win over LSU was a milestone, but it hasn’t completely swayed the projections. Austin Mock’s Playoff model still puts their CFP chances at just 8 percent.
This is despite their No. 10 AP ranking, which would usually mean a strong team. But the model’s doubts are rooted in a few glaring issues.
Performance Against Alabama
One major reason for the model’s doubt is Vanderbilt’s showing against Alabama. In that game, Vanderbilt’s offense managed only -0.07 expected points added (EPA) per play and a 39 percent success rate.
Those numbers look more like a team in the bottom third of college football, not a top contender. That poor showing hasn’t faded from the model’s memory, and it keeps questioning Vanderbilt’s ability to compete at the highest level.
Defensive Vulnerabilities
There’s also the matter of Vanderbilt’s defense. All season, it’s shown cracks, even against weaker teams.
This inconsistency makes you wonder how they’ll hold up against tougher opponents like Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee. It’s a real concern as those matchups loom.
The Road Ahead: Key Matchups
Vanderbilt’s path to the Playoff is packed with challenges. Their next games against Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee will be pivotal.
If Vanderbilt manages to split their games against Missouri and Texas and wins against Auburn and Kentucky, they could be playing for a Playoff spot in their season finale against Tennessee. That’s a big “if,” though.
Missouri and Texas Showdowns
The Missouri and Texas games? Absolutely critical. If Vanderbilt beats Missouri, their CFP odds would jump to 23 percent.
A loss, though, drops them to just 4 percent. A win against Texas would also boost their Playoff chances, so these are must-win games, no way around it.
The Tennessee Finale
If Vanderbilt can pull it off, their finale against Tennessee could decide everything. A 10-2 record in the SEC should lock up a CFP spot.
But with a 9-3 record? Unless the college football world turns upside down over the next month, that probably won’t cut it.
Other Playoff Contenders: Louisville and Utah
Vanderbilt’s story is compelling, but they’re not alone in this mess. Louisville and Utah are also fighting through their own tangled paths to the Playoff.
Louisville’s Surge
Louisville’s recent road upset of Miami changed everything. Their Playoff odds shot up from 7 percent to 26 percent.
This win shook up the ACC race and opened new doors for Louisville. Still, the model gives them just a 7 percent shot at the ACC title, with Georgia Tech now the conference favorite.
Upcoming games against Cal, Clemson, and SMU are big opportunities to pad their resume. If they keep winning, who knows?
Utah’s Struggles
Utah, on the other hand, is reeling after a rivalry loss to BYU. Their Playoff chances have dropped from 28 percent to just 10 percent.
Now they’re stuck in a six-way tie for sixth in the Big 12. With No. 21 Cincinnati up next, Utah needs to win out and get a little help from the chaos gods to stay alive in the Playoff hunt.
Implications for the Playoff Race
The outcomes of these games will shake up the broader Playoff picture. The SEC and ACC are especially volatile right now, with multiple teams still in the mix for conference titles and at-large bids.
SEC Scenarios
In the SEC, half the teams have one or fewer losses in conference play. The race to Atlanta is wide open.
Vanderbilt’s games against Missouri and Tennessee are just a couple examples of the high-stakes matchups shaping the conference and Playoff landscape.
ACC Dynamics
In the ACC, Louisville’s surge and Georgia Tech’s surprising rise add even more confusion. With chances to grab quality wins down the stretch, the ACC race is as unpredictable as ever.
Conclusion: The Unpredictable Nature of College Football
The 2025 college football season is full of surprises. The Playoff race? Still anyone’s guess.
Vanderbilt’s sudden rise has caught more than a few people off guard. The SEC and ACC are still locked in wild battles every week.
Honestly, it’s tough to say if Vanderbilt can shake off the doubters and actually grab a Playoff spot. That storyline alone might be worth watching till the very end.
If you’re curious for more numbers and projections, you can check out the full article at The New York Times.
