Top College Football Playoff First-Round Upsets Ranked by Likelihood

The 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) is here, and the first round is loaded with potential drama. Four games kick off this weekend, and honestly, it feels like anything could happen.

Last year, the higher seeds mostly cruised. This time, though, there’s a real sense that upsets are in the air. With no more automatic first-round byes for conference champs, seeds 5-8 are actually the fifth- through eighth-ranked teams in the country.

Let’s look at the most likely upsets in the first round, ranked from least to most probable. We’ll break down each matchup and see where the surprises might come from.

James Madison vs. Oregon: A Tough Road Ahead

Line: James Madison +21.5

James Madison is coming off a fantastic year, winning the Sun Belt and finishing 12-1. Their reward? A brutal first-round matchup against Oregon.

The Ducks are No. 3 in FEI, joining Indiana as the only CFP teams in the top six for both offense and defense. Oregon’s been blowing teams out, winning by over 21 points per game. Just ask Oregon State, who got thumped 41-7.

James Madison’s Strengths and Weaknesses

The Dukes have been rolling, beating teams by an average of 20.3 points—the best margin in the Group of Five. But their only Power Four matchup was a 14-point loss to Louisville. That’s a bit concerning.

The offense has picked up, especially with Wayne Knight running wild, but let’s be honest: they’ll need to play out of their minds to hang with Oregon.

Tulane vs. Ole Miss: A Rematch with New Dynamics

Line: Tulane +17.5

These two met back in September, and it wasn’t pretty for Tulane—Ole Miss rolled 45-10. But things have changed in Oxford. Lane Kiffin’s gone, and Pete Golding is running the show now.

The Rebels’ offensive staff is in flux, so who knows how that’ll play out. It could matter more than people think.

Tulane’s Challenges

The Green Wave have to figure out how to protect their quarterback, Jake Retzlaff. Last time against Ole Miss, Retzlaff managed just 5-of-17 for 56 yards. That’s rough.

Joe Craddock, Tulane’s offensive coordinator, has some work to do if Tulane wants a shot at flipping the script in this rematch.

Miami vs. Texas A&M: A Clash of Heavyweights

Line: Miami +3.5

This one could be a classic. Both Miami and Texas A&M started the year with big expectations but stumbled late, which is why they’re seeded lower than folks predicted.

Still, both teams are loaded with talent and could catch fire at the right time. If they do, watch out.

Key Players to Watch

Miami’s got some serious star power. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. and quarterback Carson Beck are both capable of taking over games. Malachi Toney, a freshman, has been a revelation.

On the Aggies’ side, KC Concepcion is a playmaker at receiver, and Cashius Howell brings the heat on defense. Quarterback Marcel Reed probably wants another shot after a tough outing against Texas.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma: The Upset That’s Not an Upset

Line: Alabama -1.5

Here’s a weird one: Alabama’s the lower seed, but the oddsmakers actually like them. Why? Their earlier loss to Oklahoma was a bit of a fluke.

Alabama outgained the Sooners by nearly double but shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers and a missed 36-yard field goal. Those mistakes ended up gifting Oklahoma 17 points in a 23-21 loss.

Why Alabama Could Win

With a full game of film to study, Alabama should feel pretty confident heading into Norman. If they can just keep turnovers to a minimum, the Crimson Tide have a real shot to pull off what would technically count as an upset.

Their last performance against Oklahoma showed flashes—they can absolutely dominate, but only if they hang onto the ball. That’s the big “if.”

For more detailed odds and analysis, you can check out the full article on College Football Playoff Odds 2025: First-Round Upset Potential.