Top 25 College Football Teams 2026: Best and Worst Scenarios

Spring practice is in the books for college football, and coaching staffs are scrambling to finalize their two-deep rosters. Everyone’s already peeking ahead at the early-season schedule for 2026, because, well, why not?

CBS Sports just dropped expectations for every top 25 team now that recruiting has settled and the transfer portal is mostly quiet. They’re using their way-too-early top 25 from January as a sort of loose guide. Here’s a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team as we inch toward the 2026 season. Let’s see what might actually happen with these top programs.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State’s got a brutal slate in 2026—road trips to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, and USC. Then you’ve got Oregon and Michigan at home in November. No pressure, right?

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 12-0, 9-0

If the Buckeyes somehow run this gauntlet without a loss, they’re grabbing that No. 1 postseason seed. But honestly, Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith have to be ridiculous—like, Heisman-level connection—if they’re going to pull off an undefeated run.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 9-3, 7-2

The roster isn’t head-and-shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten anymore. With USC’s monster recruiting class and everyone else loading up in the portal, Ohio State could end up fighting just to get to nine wins. Still, nine might get the CFP committee’s attention. Or maybe not. Who knows?

Texas Longhorns

Texas has a squad that should be in the SEC title hunt—assuming they can survive a pretty nasty early stretch.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 12-0, 9-0

If Texas beats Ohio State in Week 2, they’re probably the favorite to win the SEC and snag a top-4 playoff seed. They’ve got a deep roster and a veteran quarterback. It’s all right there for them.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 8-4, 6-3

If Texas only wins eight, Steve Sarkisian’s going to be feeling the heat. Road trips to Knoxville, Baton Rouge, and College Station? Not exactly a cakewalk.

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia’s schedule is pretty friendly. Only four games outside the state and, honestly, a clear path back to the CFP if they handle business.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 12-0, 9-0

Most games are in Georgia, and the schedule lines up nicely. Win ten, and they’re probably in.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 8-4, 6-3

An early slip-up against Arkansas, Oklahoma, or even Vanderbilt could throw things off. And imagine if Georgia Tech pulls an upset—yikes.

Oregon Ducks

Oregon’s got a meat-grinder schedule: Boise State and Oklahoma State out of conference, plus Big Ten games against USC, Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington. That’s a lot.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

If Dante Moore is lights-out again, the Ducks could make it three straight CFP trips. Not out of the question.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 8-4, 6-3

A couple of early losses and that conference grind could drag them down. It happens.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame’s in a good spot under Marcus Freeman. The schedule’s not bad, with Miami as the only real heavyweight on paper.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 12-0

This might be Freeman’s best squad yet. Their two-deep is just better than what most opponents can throw at them.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 9-3

If they drop games to BYU, Miami, and SMU, it could get ugly. That’s not what fans want to hear.

Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies have to deal with LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma—all on the road. Not ideal.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 10-2, 7-2

If Marcel Reed takes a leap at quarterback, double-digit wins aren’t out of reach.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 7-5, 4-5

That schedule’s a beast. If things go sideways, the boosters won’t be happy. That’s putting it mildly.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech is the Big 12 favorite after crushing it in the portal. That’s not something you say every year.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 12-0, 9-0

Brendan Sorsby at quarterback and a beefed-up defense? This could be a wild ride for Tech fans.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 9-3, 6-3

If Sorsby can’t get it going, conference play could get bumpy. It’s a lot to ask for everything to click.

Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana’s coming off a national title run. Can they keep it rolling with new faces in the backfield and Josh Hoover under center?

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 12-0, 9-0

Strong coaching and some transfer magic could keep Indiana in the top-15 mix. It’s not impossible.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 9-3, 6-3

Every Big Ten team is gunning for them now, but they should still be in the fight. Don’t expect a total collapse.

Michigan Wolverines

Kyle Whittingham steps in as head coach, with Jason Beck calling plays. The mission: unlock Bryce Underwood’s potential at QB.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

With a top-15 class and key transfers, Michigan could bounce back in a big way. Feels like a fresh start.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 7-5, 5-4

The schedule’s rough. Going .500 against the top dogs might honestly be a small win after last year.

Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma’s season kind of rides on whether the offense gets rolling early and they snag some confidence-building wins.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 10-2, 7-2

If the recruiting hype pays off and they beat Michigan in Week 2, ten wins is totally doable.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 6-6, 4-5

A brutal early schedule could knock them off track fast. Last year’s CFP run feels a long way off if that happens.

USC Trojans

USC’s Big Ten schedule is just mean: Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana. Not for the faint of heart.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

If the top-ranked recruiting class steps up right away and Jayden Maiava goes off, USC could be right in the thick of things.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 7-5, 4-5

New DC Gary Patterson’s got his hands full. Early losses to Oregon and Washington could set a rough tone.

BYU Cougars

BYU’s hoping for a CFP shot. That Notre Dame game looms large.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

If they beat Notre Dame and keep rolling, a CFP spot is right there for the taking.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 8-4, 6-3

The schedule’s no joke, and losing defensive coordinator Jay Hill could sting more than people think.

Miami Hurricanes

Miami’s kept key guys and loaded up the roster. They’re right there as a top ACC threat.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 12-0, 9-0

If everything clicks, Miami could steamroll the ACC and land a top-4 CFP seed. It’s not far-fetched.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 10-2, 8-1

The Notre Dame game is the big one. Drop another, and the playoff picture gets messy fast.

LSU Tigers

LSU’s schedule is rough, and Lane Kiffin’s in his first year. Expectations are sky-high, as always.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

If the talent shows up, LSU could be back in the CFP mix. That’s the hope, anyway.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 8-4, 6-3

Early stumbles and pressure on new QB Sam Leavitt could make things unravel. That’s a lot to ask for a new staff.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama’s itching to get back to the SEC title game with Kalen DeBoer at the helm. New era, but same expectations.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

If they can pound the rock and get solid QB play, 11 wins and an SEC title shot are in play. Feels familiar, doesn’t it?

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 7-5, 4-5

This SEC schedule’s just brutal. Losses to the big boys, and suddenly it’s a season to forget.

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville’s trying to keep the momentum under Jeff Brohm. The roster looks good, and a few key guys are back.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

With the right mix, Louisville could hit 11 wins and stay in the ACC race. There’s a path.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 7-5, 5-4

Early losses could derail things before they really get going. It’s a thin margin for error.

Missouri Tigers

Missouri’s got a tough road ahead with Eli Drinkwitz still leading the way. Expectations are up, but so’s the degree of difficulty.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 9-3, 6-3

If their stars show up, Missouri could surprise some folks and post a strong season.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 5-7, 3-6

But losses to the top teams and a couple of bad breaks, and suddenly it’s a struggle just to make a bowl.

Utah Utes

Utah’s rolling with new head coach Morgan Scalley. They’ve got talent and some key returners, but it’s not an easy road.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 10-2, 7-2

If they keep up their level, ten wins and a Pac-12 run are possible.

Worst-Case Scenario

Record: 7-5, 5-4

The schedule’s a bear, and a few losses to the top teams could make things dicey.

Washington Huskies

Washington’s hoping to keep things rolling under Jedd Fisch. The roster’s solid, and there’s a decent core coming back. What happens next? Guess we’ll see.

Best-Case Scenario

Record: 11-1, 8-1

If the stars align and a few key players step up, Washington might just pull off an 11-win season. That’d keep them right in the thick of things, no question.