Top 2025-26 College Football Bowl Confidence Picks and Playoff Predictions
The 2025-26 college football bowl season is rolling along, and with more than 30 matchups still ahead, fans and bettors are buzzing with predictions and second-guessing their picks in bowl confidence pools. There’ve already been some wild games, but honestly, the biggest showdowns are still looming—especially those playoff clashes everyone can’t stop talking about.
Teams like Utah, Penn State, Clemson, and USC are all in the conversation, so there’s no shortage of drama or chances for smart bettors to get a leg up. This article takes a look at some of the most intriguing games, shares a few nuggets from SportsLine’s model, and tosses out a handful of tips for making the most of your bowl confidence picks.
Contents
Understanding Bowl Confidence Pools
Bowl confidence pools put a twist on the usual bowl season action. Instead of just picking winners, you assign confidence points to each matchup—basically ranking how sure you are about each outcome.
The more certain you feel, the higher the points you give that game. The trick is to rack up as many points as you can by nailing your picks.
Key Matchups to Watch
One of the bigger games left is the Las Vegas Bowl on December 31, where Utah is a hefty 16.5-point favorite over Nebraska. It might seem obvious to load up on confidence points here, but bowl season loves chaos, and upsets are always lurking.
If you can sniff out a couple of those upsets, you might just jump ahead in your pool. Here are a few other matchups getting plenty of attention:
- Penn State vs. Clemson (-3.5)
- Vanderbilt (-5.5) vs. Iowa
- Georgia Tech vs. BYU (-4.5)
- Tennessee vs. Illinois (+2.5)
- Michigan vs. Texas (-7.5)
Insights from SportsLine’s Proven Model
Before you lock in any bowl picks, it makes sense to check in with the experts. SportsLine’s model runs every FBS game 10,000 times—yeah, that’s a lot—and it’s had a pretty solid track record with money-line picks since 2024.
Using these simulations can help you make smarter decisions and, hopefully, see some solid returns on your bets.
Most Confident Picks
SportsLine is really high on No. 16 USC (-6.5) over TCU in the Alamo Bowl on December 30. USC, with Jayden Maiava at quarterback, finished 9-3 in the regular season, and all their losses were to ranked teams.
TCU had a brief moment in the Top 25 but stumbled through the Big 12, ending up 5-4. The model gives USC about a 70% shot at winning, so they’re a pretty safe bet for a lot of folks.
Another game where the model feels confident: Northwestern (-10.5) against Central Michigan in the GameAbove Sports Bowl on December 26. Central Michigan just couldn’t keep up against Power 4 teams this year, while Northwestern managed a 6-6 record in the always-tough Big Ten.
The model likes Northwestern nearly 80% of the time, so they’re another good choice for stacking up those confidence points.
Strategies for Success in Bowl Confidence Pools
Winning your bowl confidence pool isn’t just about picking chalk. It’s about finding the right balance between favorites and those tempting underdogs.
Prioritize High-Confidence Games
Start with the games where you’re almost certain of the outcome. SportsLine says there are 11 teams that win at least 70% of the time, so it makes sense to put your biggest confidence points there.
Identify Potential Upsets
But don’t ignore the chaos. If you can nail a couple upsets, you might leapfrog the competition. SportsLine has spotted 15 underdogs that win outright in their simulations.
Try putting lower confidence points on those games—if they hit, you look like a genius without risking too much.
Upcoming Bowl Schedule
Here’s a quick look at some of the upcoming matchups:
- Monday, Dec. 22
- Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State, 2 p.m. ET
- Tuesday, Dec. 23
- Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisville, 2 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss, 5:30 p.m. ET
- Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs. Ohio, 9 p.m. ET
- Wednesday, Dec. 24
- Hawaii Bowl: Cal vs. Hawaii, 8 p.m. ET
- Friday, Dec. 26
- GameAbove Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern, 1 p.m. ET
- Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota, 4:30 p.m. ET
- First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA, 8 p.m. ET
- Saturday, Dec. 27
- Military Bowl: Pitt vs. East Carolina, 11 a.m. ET
- Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State vs. Clemson, noon ET
- Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. Army, 2:15 p.m. ET
- Pop-Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State, 4:30 p.m. ET
- New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State, 5:45 p.m. ET
- Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston, 9:15 p.m. ET
- Monday, Dec. 29
- Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. App. State, 2 p.m. ET
- Tuesday, Dec. 30
- Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech, 2 p.m. ET
- Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Illinois, 5:30 p.m. ET
- Alamo Bowl: USC vs. TCU, 9 p.m. ET
- Wednesday, Dec. 31
- ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt, noon ET
- Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke, 2 p.m. ET
- Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas, 3 p.m. ET
- Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Friday, Jan. 2
- Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State, 1 p.m. ET
- Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU, 8 p.m. ET
- Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State, 8 p.m. ET
If you want the full list of matchups and more expert takes, check out the article on CBSSports.
Conclusion
The 2025-26 college football bowl season is shaping up to be pretty exciting, with all sorts of matchups and storylines for fans and bettors alike.
There’s no shortage of expert insights out there—SportsLine’s model comes to mind if you’re into that sort of thing. Strategic thinking can really pay off in bowl confidence pools, though honestly, sometimes it just comes down to a hunch.
So, keep an eye on the latest updates, trust your gut, and soak in the chaos of bowl season. It’s never boring, that’s for sure.
