Top 12 Surprise 2026 College Football Playoff Contenders Revealed
The 2026 college football season is inching closer, and fans can barely contain their excitement. The AP Preseason Top 25 hasn’t dropped yet, but that hasn’t stopped longtime college football expert Phil Steele from making his own bold predictions.
This year, Steele’s calling his shot with 12 surprise College Football Playoff contenders. These are teams he thinks could crash the party, maybe even win it all, despite not being in the AP Preseason Top 10. Let’s take a look at who he’s got and what makes them interesting dark horses for 2026.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Steele thinks the Alabama Crimson Tide will start outside the AP Top 10 for the first time since 2008. Last season ended in disaster for them—Indiana crushed Alabama 35-3 in the CFP quarterfinals, and, honestly, that stung.
Still, Steele’s not counting them out. He points to the talent returning, especially on defense, that could put Alabama right back in the mix.
The key factors for Alabama’s potential success include:
- Bigger, stronger defensive front
- No. 6-rated secondary
- Talented run game
- Experienced coaching under Nick Saban and Coach DeBoer
BYU Cougars
Steele’s got a soft spot for the BYU Cougars this year. He says it’s the most talented roster Kalani Sitake has had in over a decade at Provo.
Sophomore QB Bear Bachmeier and 1,300-yard rusher LJ Martin lead an offense that looks, well, dangerous behind a deep O-line.
Reasons why BYU could surprise:
- Strong offensive lineup
- Potentially dominant defense
- Best recruiting class in school history
- Tough but winnable games against TCU, Utah, and Notre Dame
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma was Steele’s No. 1 surprise pick last year, and they delivered—a 10-2 finish and a first-round Playoff game as the No. 8 seed. This time, senior QB John Mateer is back and healthy, and there’s a tough Brent Venables defense to lean on.
Steele’s got them as a Playoff threat again, though their road schedule is pretty brutal.
Key points for Oklahoma:
- Heisman dark horse QB John Mateer
- Traditionally tough defense
- Rough road games: Michigan, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, and Texas
USC Trojans
Steele’s betting that Lincoln Riley finally gets USC over the hump in 2026. There’s a ton of returning talent on offense, including QB Jayden Maiava and running backs King Miller and Waymond Jordan.
The offensive line is experienced, and honestly, that could make all the difference for the Trojans.
Factors contributing to USC’s potential:
- Improved defense
- Manageable road schedule
- Strong home record under Riley
- Big home games: Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington
Utah Utes
Utah didn’t make the CFP last year and parted ways with longtime coach Kyle Whittingham. Even so, Steele still likes their chances in 2026.
There’s elite talent left in Salt Lake City, and new head coach Morgan Scalley keeps the defense tough as ever.
Reasons for Utah’s potential success:
- Returning QB duo: Devon Dampier and Bryd Ficklin
- Near-1,000-yard rusher Wayshawn Parker
- Favorable schedule
- Strong defensive tradition
Other Contenders
Steele’s list doesn’t stop there. A handful of other programs could shake things up and make a Playoff push in 2026:
- SMU Mustangs: Talented roster, friendly schedule—could be sneaky good.
- Clemson Tigers: They’ve struggled lately, but the talent and coaching are still there.
- Louisville Cardinals: Offense is explosive, defense has experience. Worth keeping an eye on.
- Iowa Hawkeyes: That defense is always tough. Could surprise some folks.
- Houston Cougars: High-powered offense. If they get hot, watch out.
- Tennessee Volunteers: Talented squad and a decent schedule—don’t sleep on them.
- TCU Horned Frogs: Balanced team, good coaching. Maybe they make some noise.
Longshot: Pitt Panthers
The Pitt Panthers are a real wild card for 2026. They’re not exactly favorites, but sometimes that’s when teams get dangerous.
There’s some real talent on this roster. If the coaching staff keeps everyone focused, who knows what could happen?
It won’t be easy, though. That schedule is no joke, and Pitt will need to take advantage of every opening they get.
For more detailed insights and predictions, you can read the full article by Phil Steele on On3.
