Top 10 Teams’ Path to College Football Playoff Success
The preseason US LBM Coaches Poll just dropped, and while a top 10 spot sounds like a golden ticket to the College Football Playoff (CFP), reality is messier. Last season, for example, half the top 10 didn’t make it—including preseason No. 1 Texas.
This year, Ohio State, Oregon, and Georgia are all eyeing a spot in the new 12-team CFP. Their paths? Well, they’re not exactly smooth sailing.
Let’s take a look at what these top 10 teams need to do—and what could trip them up along the way.
Ohio State: The Perennial Contender
Ohio State opens as No. 1 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. They’re usually good at dodging upsets, but their schedule isn’t exactly forgiving.
Key Games
- Sept. 12 at No. 4 Texas
- Oct. 17 at No. 6 Indiana
- Nov. 7 vs. No. 2 Oregon
What needs to happen: An early win at Texas would be huge insurance. If they can sweep Indiana and Oregon, they’re basically in—though even splitting those games probably works.
What could go wrong: Trap games at Iowa on Oct. 3 and at Southern California on Halloween could really mess things up. Ending up 9-3 would make things dicey for their playoff hopes.
Oregon’s got a tough road, but the talent is there if they can handle the big moments.
Key Games
- Sept. 26 at No. 14 USC
- Nov. 7 at No. 1 Ohio State
- Nov. 14 vs. No. 16 Michigan
- Nov. 28 vs. No. 19 Washington
What needs to happen: They need to handle business against the West Coast Big Ten teams. Winning at Ohio State would be a dream, but avoiding a second Big Ten loss is more important.
What could go wrong: Their nonconference slate is soft, so more than one Big Ten loss could really hurt their chances.
Georgia: The SEC Gauntlet
Georgia’s road to the CFP is loaded with big games. Their recent track record helps, but it’s no guarantee.
Key Games
- Sept. 26 vs. No. 9 Oklahoma
- Oct. 10 at No. 11 Alabama
- Nov. 7 at No. 10 Mississippi
What needs to happen: Winning two out of these three probably gets them in. Even two road losses might not kill their chances, but a sweep would be best.
What could go wrong: Ole Miss comes right after a rivalry game with Florida—classic trap setup. November games against Missouri and South Carolina? Not exactly cake either.
Texas: A Redemption Season
Texas is looking to bounce back after last year’s letdown. No Georgia or Alabama on the schedule this time, so things look a bit brighter.
Key Games
- Sept. 12 vs. No. 1 Ohio State
- Oct. 10 vs. No. 9 Oklahoma in Dallas
- Oct. 24 vs. No. 10 Mississippi
- Nov. 14 at No. 13 LSU
- Nov. 27 at No. 8 Texas A&M
What needs to happen: Beating Ohio State would be a statement, but it’s not make-or-break. Hitting 10 wins should put them in the mix.
What could go wrong: 9-3 wasn’t enough last year. The Sept. 26 trip to Tennessee looks sneaky tough, too.
Notre Dame: The Toughest Path
Notre Dame’s schedule is brutal. Honestly, their route to the CFP might be the hardest of the bunch.
Key Games
- Oct. 17 at No. 15 Brigham Young
- Nov. 7 vs. No. 7 Miami
- Nov. 21 vs. No. 20 SMU
What needs to happen: They probably need to win two of those three. If they can beat both BYU and Miami, they’ll have some wiggle room.
What could go wrong: Drop two of those, and things get ugly fast. A slip against Navy or Wisconsin could be a season-breaker, too.
Indiana: The Underdog with Potential
Indiana has earned some respect lately, but man, their schedule is a grind. They’ve got to make the most of their big games.
Key Games
- Oct. 17 vs. No. 1 Ohio State
- Oct. 24 at No. 16 Michigan
- Nov. 14 vs. No. 14 Southern California
- Nov. 21 at No. 19 Washington
What needs to happen: They really need to beat Ohio State at home. A 10-2 finish should do the trick, considering their recent form.
What could go wrong: Back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan? That would make November a nightmare. Nebraska could also be a headache before then.
Miami: The ACC’s Best Bet
Miami’s leading the ACC pack, but they’ve got a knack for stumbling when it counts. They’ll have to shake that reputation.
Key Games
- Oct. 3 at No. 23 Clemson
- Oct. 17 vs. Florida State
- Nov. 7 at No. 5 Notre Dame
What needs to happen: Winning the ACC is non-negotiable. A strong showing against Notre Dame would make a big statement.
What could go wrong: Miami sometimes loses games they shouldn’t. Starting with three ACC games on the road? That’s a rough draw.
Texas A&M: A Challenging Road
Texas A&M has a rough slate and plenty of road tests. They’ll need at least one headline win to stay in the playoff picture.
Key Games
- Sept. 26 at No. 13 LSU
- Oct. 24 at No. 11 Alabama
- Nov. 21 at No. 9 Oklahoma
- Nov. 27 vs. No. 4 Texas
What needs to happen: They really need to be 9-1 before the final stretch. Pulling off a big road win would be a game-changer.
What could go wrong: Playing Texas right after a trip to Oklahoma isn’t ideal. Any surprise losses and, well, it’s probably curtains.
Oklahoma: A Difficult Schedule
Oklahoma’s schedule is just brutal. They’ve got to be sharp every week if they want to hang in the playoff race.
Key Games
- Sept. 12 at No. 16 Michigan
- Sept. 26 at No. 3 Georgia
- Oct. 10 vs. No. 4 Texas in Dallas
- Nov. 14 vs. No. 10 Mississippi
- Nov. 21 vs. No. 8 Texas A&M
What needs to happen: Beating Michigan would be a great start. They need to win at least two of those four SEC matchups.
What could go wrong: It’s not hard to picture them with three losses by mid-October. A fourth would end any playoff talk.
Ole Miss: The Dark Horse
Ole Miss has a tough schedule, but if they can pull off some upsets, they could make things interesting in the playoff race.
Key Games
- Sept. 19 vs. No. 13 LSU
- Oct. 24 at No. 4 Texas
- Nov. 7 vs. No. 3 Georgia
- Nov. 14 at No. 9 Oklahoma
What needs to happen: If they can manage a 2-2 split in these four games, they’ll stay in the playoff hunt. A 1-3 record? That’s going to sting and probably put them on the outside looking in.
What could go wrong: That opener against Louisville in Nashville… it could set the tone, for better or worse. Drop more than three games, and, well, they’re probably done for.
These top 10 teams are in for a wild ride. Preseason hype is fun, but the real test? It’s everything that comes after.
Curious for more? Check out the full article on USA Today.
