Texas Teams’ College Football Playoff Paths: Texas A&M to North Texas

The race for the College Football Playoff (CFP) is really starting to get interesting as we head into the last stretch of the season. With Week 12 coming up, a handful of Texas teams are still fighting for a spot in the 12-team playoff.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas, SMU, Houston, and North Texas each have different routes they could take to get in. Some paths look smoother than others. This post looks at where each team stands, what they’ve got left, and what hurdles might trip them up. If you want to dive deeper, you can check out the original article at the Dallas Morning News.

Texas A&M: A Strong Contender

Texas A&M is sitting pretty right now. At 9-0 and ranked No. 3 in the latest CFP rankings, the Aggies are in a spot most teams would envy.

They’ve got three games left: home games against South Carolina and Samford, then a trip to Austin to play Texas.

Upcoming Games

• South Carolina (Home)
• Samford (Home)
• Texas (Away)

Even with a couple of slip-ups, a 10-2 finish would probably be enough to keep their playoff hopes alive. FanDuel isn’t even offering odds on A&M making the playoff anymore. Instead, you can only bet on them missing it at +5000, which tells you just about everything.

Texas Tech: On the Bubble

Texas Tech’s situation is a little shakier. The Red Raiders are ranked No. 8, but they’ve already got a loss, so there’s not much room for error.

They wrap up the regular season at home against UCF and then travel to West Virginia. If they win both, they’re almost certainly in, regardless of what happens in the Big 12 title game.

Upcoming Games

• UCF (Home)
• West Virginia (Away)

FanDuel puts Tech at -1200 to make the playoff and +680 to miss. It’s all in their hands, but there’s zero margin for a late stumble.

Texas: A Tough Road Ahead

The Longhorns, ranked No. 11 and sitting at 7-2, don’t have it easy. Their remaining schedule is rough: a road trip to No. 5 Georgia, then home games against Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M.

If they can finish 9-3 with a win over either Georgia or A&M, they might still sneak into the conversation. The committee’s been big on strength of schedule this year, so there’s a glimmer of hope if things break their way.

Upcoming Games

• Georgia (Away)
• Arkansas (Home)
• Texas A&M (Home)

FanDuel’s got Texas at +194 to make the CFP and -245 to miss. It’s not a sure thing, but it’s not impossible either if they pull off an upset or two.

SMU and Houston: Conference Championship or Bust

For SMU and Houston, it’s pretty simple: win your conference or go home. Houston is 8-2 and needs to win out, plus get some help, to reach the Big 12 title game.

SMU has a clearer path to the ACC championship, but they don’t totally control their fate. It’s a little frustrating if you’re a Mustangs fan—so close, but not quite in the driver’s seat.

Houston’s Upcoming Games

• TCU (Home)
• Baylor (Away)

FanDuel lists Houston at +10000 to win the Big 12. They’ll need to win both and cross their fingers for a little chaos elsewhere.

SMU’s Upcoming Games

• Louisville (Home)
• California (Away)

SMU sits at +710 to make the CFP and +450 to win the ACC. That gap kind of hints that even if they win the ACC, they might get left out of the top five conference champs. That’d sting.

North Texas: The Dark Horse

North Texas is a bit of a shocker in the playoff mix. The Mean Green are still alive for the American title, which could earn them an automatic CFP bid.

They close out with games against UAB, Rice, and Temple. It’s a long shot, but hey, stranger things have happened in college football.

Upcoming Games

• UAB (Away)
• Rice (Away)
• Temple (Home)

North Texas is sitting with the second-best odds to win the American Conference on FanDuel at +185. South Florida edges them out at +115.

Making the CFP, though? Odds are a bit steeper—+220. There’s still a good bit of doubt, even if they manage to win the conference.

With each week, things shift a little. Every game feels like it matters more than the last. If you want a deeper dive, check out the Dallas Morning News.