Predicting CFP Top 12 Rankings: Sooners and Tide’s New Positions

The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee’s third ranking of the season is about to drop, and expectations are high for some shakeups—especially after Oklahoma’s wild upset over Alabama. This could really mess with the top 12, particularly for teams sitting on two losses.

The committee’s choices for how to arrange these squads, and whether Notre Dame has done enough to hang onto its spot as the top two-loss team, are anybody’s guess. So, here’s a look at the projected rankings and some thoughts on what might be going through the committee’s collective mind.

Ohio State: The Unquestionable No. 1

Ohio State has locked down the No. 1 spot after rolling over UCLA. Their defense is stifling, the offensive line is tough, and quarterback Julian Sayin is playing lights out.

Even though their strength of schedule isn’t quite as tough as some other contenders, the Buckeyes’ overall efficiency and stacked roster keep them at the top.

Why Ohio State Could Be Lower

There’s not much reason to think the committee will drop Ohio State. Their strength of schedule is only ranked No. 42 among the top four, but with how they’ve played, moving them down seems like a stretch.

Need to Know

• The Buckeyes still haven’t clinched a Big Ten title game berth.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan.

Indiana: The Rising Star

Indiana’s making noise this season, especially after dominating weaker teams like Wisconsin. They’re leading the nation in scoring and have the second-best defense, which is pretty wild.

Their efficiency and game control numbers are strong, so it’s not just smoke and mirrors.

Why Indiana Could Be Higher

With the top three all winning, it’s hard to see Indiana moving up much right now. But if they keep this up, who knows?

Need to Know

• Indiana hasn’t locked up a Big Ten title game spot yet.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue.

Texas A&M: The Comeback Kings

Texas A&M pulled off a gutsy comeback against South Carolina, showing some serious fight. They’re still holding onto the No. 3 spot, thanks to their strength of record and some big wins.

That game was close, but their résumé is still solid.

Why Texas A&M Could Be Higher

The Aggies’ comeback was dramatic, but barely squeaking by a weaker team probably isn’t enough to bump them up. The committee seems content with where they are.

Need to Know

• Texas A&M hasn’t clinched an SEC title game berth yet.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas.

Georgia: Climbing the Ranks

Georgia just hammered Texas and now sits ahead of two-loss Alabama. Their résumé is strong—fewer losses, tough schedule, and a solid strength of record.

Hard to argue against their spot after a performance like that.

Why Georgia Could Be Lower

Georgia’s coming off a dominant win over a top-10 team, so dropping them doesn’t make much sense. They’ve been steady all year.

Need to Know

• Georgia hasn’t clinched an SEC title game spot yet.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech.

Texas Tech: Earning Respect

Texas Tech has been taking care of business against top-13 teams, and it’s paying off in the rankings. Their defense and offense both show up when it counts.

Yeah, they lost to Arizona State, but the Red Raiders are still in the mix.

Why Texas Tech Could Be Lower

It’s pretty unlikely they’ll slip behind Ole Miss given their résumé and how they’ve played. The committee’s past rankings back that up.

Need to Know

• Texas Tech hasn’t secured a Big 12 title game spot yet.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia.

Ole Miss: Moving Up

Ole Miss is probably sliding up a spot after Alabama’s stumble. Their only loss is to Georgia, which isn’t exactly a knock against them.

That said, they’ve only got two road wins, and their schedule isn’t the toughest.

Why Ole Miss Could Be Higher

Losing only to a top-four team looks better than Texas Tech’s loss. Plus, their showing against Oklahoma helps their case.

Need to Know

• Only two road wins for Ole Miss so far.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State.

Oregon: Staying Strong

Oregon keeps hanging around thanks to their steady play and that big win over Iowa. Their strength of record and game control numbers are solid.

But their fate is kind of tied to what Ole Miss does.

Why Oregon Could Be Higher

Oregon and Ole Miss are neck and neck résumé-wise. The committee’s been leaning Ole Miss, though, and it’s tough to argue for a jump.

Need to Know

• The likely Big Ten title game: Indiana vs. Ohio State.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC.

Oklahoma: The Statement Maker

Oklahoma’s beaten Tennessee and Alabama, plus picked up a nonconference win over Michigan. That head-to-head over Alabama really matters.

They’ve made a statement, no doubt.

Why Oklahoma Could Be Lower

If the committee is more impressed by Notre Dame’s defense and ground game than Oklahoma’s résumé, the Irish could stick as the top two-loss team. It’s a toss-up.

Need to Know

• Oklahoma’s playoff odds are up to 52.3%, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
• Toughest remaining game: Don’t slip up at home against Mizzou or LSU.

Alabama: Still in the Mix

Alabama lost to Oklahoma, but they’re not out of the hunt yet. They have some big wins and a strong overall record.

That loss to Florida State does sting, though.

Why Alabama Could Be Lower

Notre Dame’s strong showings and close losses to top teams could push Alabama down. The committee’s film review will be key here.

Need to Know

• Alabama can still make the SEC championship if they beat Auburn.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn.

Notre Dame: The Complete Team

Notre Dame just rolled over Pitt, putting their strengths on display. Their defense, running game, and quarterback play have all gotten committee attention.

They dropped two early, but have rattled off eight straight since then.

Why Notre Dame Could Be Higher

If the committee cares more about film than schedule strength, Notre Dame could hang onto their top two-loss team status. Their tight losses to top-20 teams help, too.

Need to Know

• Irish finish the season against Syracuse and Stanford.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford.

BYU: Holding Steady

BYU’s biggest moment so far is their win over Utah. They did lose to Texas Tech, but otherwise, they’ve done enough to stay in the top 12.

That narrow TCU win probably won’t move the needle much, honestly.

Why BYU Could Be Lower

Utah’s loss to BYU gives them some cushion. Still, how the committee feels about Texas could shake things up.

Need to Know

• BYU could get bumped out during seeding to make room for the ACC champ.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati.

Utah: On the Edge

Utah’s played well enough to get the committee’s attention, but that loss to BYU keeps them back. They do have some impressive wins, though.

Why Utah Could Be Lower

Texas’s performance and head-to-head results will matter. The committee’s final call will come down to the film and overall play.

Need to Know

• Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
• Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas.

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

• First-round byes
• No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
• No. 2 Indiana
• No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
• No. 4 Georgia

First-round games (On campus, Dec. 19 and 20)

• No. 12 Navy (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
• No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
• No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
• No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games (At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential, and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1)

• No. 12 Navy/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
• No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
• No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
• No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Want a closer look or maybe just some fresh updates on the College Football Playoff rankings? Check out ESPN’s projection of the College Football Playoff Top 12 for Week 12.