Power Four Teams’ CFP Standings and Week 9 Outlook
With nine AP Top 25 teams losing in a wild Week 8, the path to the College Football Playoff (CFP) is absolute chaos right now. Not many elite teams are really pulling away from the rest, and for some, the window for a playoff run is already feeling like it’s slamming shut.
Every misstep matters. The margin for error is razor-thin for those who started 2025 with high postseason hopes—Miami included, after their loss to Louisville sent the Hurricanes’ CFP dreams into a tailspin of uncertainty.
Ohio State and Indiana look close to locking up a CFP spot. Alabama’s hot streak is making things interesting, too, with six wins in a row and momentum on their side.
The SEC is stacked. More than half the league still has a legit shot at a playoff bid, which is wild.
How many spots will the ACC or Big 12 even get if their top contenders keep knocking each other off? Notre Dame’s back in the discussion, with their at-large bid chances looking better every week.
If the Fighting Irish can avoid another stumble, maybe the Big Ten or SEC loses a playoff spot. Or maybe not. It’s all up in the air.
So, who’s cruising, and who’s stuck in gridlock as we head into the final stretch? Here’s the fifth College Football Playoff Traffic Report, breaking down where each Power Four team sits—by tier, of course:
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Teams on Cruise Control
Some teams have separated themselves as front-runners for the CFP. They’ve looked elite, and their road looks pretty clear—at least for now.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes are rolling at 7-0. Julian Sayin’s making a real Heisman case, and Big Ten play hasn’t given them much trouble.
They’ve got a bye coming up, and Michigan on the road is the only real speed bump left. Feels like an undefeated regular season is within reach.
Indiana Hoosiers
The No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers are also 7-0. Locking in Curt Cignetti with a monster contract means they can focus on the CFP, not off-field distractions.
The rest of their schedule? Honestly, it’s not too tough. Indiana’s set up nicely for another postseason shot.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide have bounced back, winning six straight. Their remaining SEC schedule is about as forgiving as you could ask for.
Alabama’s fate is in their own hands again.
Texas A&M Aggies
The No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies are one of just five undefeated Power Four teams left. Their defense is nasty up front, which should keep them in the playoff hunt, even with a tough finish.
Teams in the Driver’s Seat
These teams control their own destiny, but it’s a thin line. One bad week could wreck everything.
Georgia Bulldogs
The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs have clawed back from some ugly starts. But honestly, if they keep letting teams jump ahead early, it could bite them against better opponents.
Oregon Ducks
The No. 6 Oregon Ducks shook off their first loss with a statement win. The rest of their schedule looks manageable, but you never know with trap games lurking.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been in must-win mode since September. Beating USC kept hope alive, but there’s zero room for error now.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The No. 7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets stand as the last unbeaten ACC squad. They’ve got a friendly schedule left, so if they keep it up, they might just crash the playoff party.
BYU Cougars
The No. 11 BYU Cougars have their fate in their own hands, but the next few games are brutal. If they survive, they’re in the mix—if not, well, that’s probably it.
Oklahoma Sooners
The No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners face a rough stretch against ranked teams. Their defense is going to have to step up for them to stay alive in the playoff chase.
Miami Hurricanes
The No. 9 Miami Hurricanes tripped up against Louisville. They’ve already used their one free pass—another loss and they’re probably out.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The No. 14 Texas Tech Red Raiders are out of mulligans after a recent loss. The Big 12 is just unpredictable enough to make their path a real headache.
Ole Miss Rebels
The No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels have to beat Oklahoma to keep their hopes alive. That loss to Georgia really stings right now.
Vanderbilt Commodores
The No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores are leaning hard on Diego Pavia at quarterback. If he shines, maybe they hang around, but the upcoming schedule isn’t doing them any favors.
Missouri Tigers
The No. 15 Missouri Tigers need wins against ranked SEC teams to stay relevant. The next couple of weeks will tell us a lot about them.
Virginia Cavaliers
The No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers have squeaked out a few close ones. Their schedule lightens up, so maybe they pull off something big—who knows?
Teams with Crowded Paths
Still alive, but the road’s packed. These teams need help from others, and the margin is paper-thin.
Texas Longhorns
The No. 22 Texas Longhorns are struggling to move the ball. Their remaining games look less like opportunities and more like obstacles.
Tennessee Volunteers
The No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers don’t have a ranked win yet. Every game now is basically do-or-die.
Louisville Cardinals
The No. 19 Louisville Cardinals picked up a big win over Miami. But with no ranked opponents left, their playoff hopes might hinge on chaos elsewhere.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The No. 21 Cincinnati Bearcats have rattled off six straight wins. The road ahead is rough, though, and they’ll have to earn every bit of it.
LSU Tigers
The No. 20 LSU Tigers need to turn things around in a hurry. Their best win hasn’t aged well, so they’ve got a lot of ground to make up.
Michigan Wolverines
The No. 25 Michigan Wolverines are staring down a tough road swing. Their coach just can’t seem to win away from home, which doesn’t help.
Arizona State Sun Devils
The No. 24 Arizona State Sun Devils have a manageable schedule left. That win over Texas Tech gives them a fighting chance, at least on paper.
SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs haven’t lost in conference play since joining the ACC. Games against Miami and Louisville are going to decide their fate, plain and simple.
Illinois Fighting Illini
The No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini have to win out to make a real case for an at-large bid. It’s all up to the committee after that.
Teams with Long, Risky Paths
Technically still alive, but let’s be honest, it’s a long shot. These squads need wild upsets and a whole lot of luck:
- ACC: California, Duke, Pittsburgh
- Big 12: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
- Big Ten: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, USC, Washington
- SEC: None
Effectively Eliminated Teams
These teams are, for all practical purposes, out of the CFP race:
- ACC: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
- Big 12: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
- Big Ten: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
- SEC: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Curious about where each team stands or what might be next? Dive into the latest College Football Playoff Traffic Report for a closer look.
