Post-Spring College Football Playoff Projections: Miami, Texas, Oregon, Notre Dame Lead

As the dust finally settles after spring practice, we’re starting to see the 2026 college football picture come into focus. With rosters mostly set, incoming freshmen on campus, and transfers finding their spots, it feels like we can actually start guessing how the postseason might shake out.

This season’s got a different vibe, honestly. Expanded playoff access and all the roster shuffling have made things feel wide open at the top. Parity is the word everyone keeps using, and I can’t disagree—there’s a sense that anything could happen in the title race for 2026.

So, let’s get into the latest College Football Playoff (CFP) and bowl projections, courtesy of CBS Sports. Where’s your team landing? Let’s see.

Overview of the 2026 College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections

We’re in a transition era for college football. There’s a new playoff format, and we’re seeing more teams in the mix for the first time ever.

This year, four first-round CFP games are actually happening on campus sites. That’s pretty cool—imagine the energy. Then, it rolls into the quarterfinals at big-name venues like the Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, and Rose Bowl.

The Orange and Sugar Bowls are set to host the CFP semifinals. Meanwhile, the Puerto Rico Bowl and Poinsettia Bowl are joining the party, but the LA Bowl and GameAboveSports Bowl are out.

All told, there are 82 bowl spots, including the 12-team playoff. That’s a lot of football.

New Bowl Games and Eligibility Changes

The Puerto Rico Bowl is brand new, and the Poinsettia Bowl is back after being gone since 2016. Mountain West champ is probably heading to the Poinsettia Bowl this year.

There’s also some interesting stuff happening with eligibility. The Division I FBS Oversight Committee might let North Dakota State and Sacramento State be bowl-eligible right away as they move up from FCS to FBS. If that happens, North Dakota State could play in the Mountain West and Sacramento State might land in the MAC, both with a shot at the postseason.

Key Matchups and Projections

Here’s a quick rundown of some key bowl matchups for the upcoming season:

• Hawaii Bowl: South Florida vs. Hawaii
• Cure Bowl: East Carolina vs. Kentucky
• Armed Forces Bowl: North Dakota State vs. James Madison
• Salute to Veterans Bowl: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina
• 68Ventures Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisiana Tech
• Xbox Bowl: Delaware vs. Georgia Southern
• Myrtle Beach Bowl: Akron vs. Western Michigan
• Boca Raton Bowl: Tulane vs. Jacksonville State
• Potato Bowl: San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio)
• Frisco Bowl: North Texas vs. Missouri State
• New Orleans Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Kennesaw State
• New Mexico Bowl: Boise State vs. FIU
• Arizona Bowl: Fresno State vs. Buffalo
• Puerto Rico Bowl: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan
• First Responder Bowl: Cincinnati vs. North Carolina
• Gasparilla Bowl: Auburn vs. Virginia
• Rate Bowl: Kansas State vs. Wisconsin
• Poinsettia Bowl: Memphis vs. New Mexico
• Fenway Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Memphis
• Pinstripe Bowl: NC State vs. Nebraska
• Military Bowl: Navy vs. Pittsburgh
• Texas Bowl: Utah vs. South Carolina
• Independence Bowl: Arizona vs. Army
• Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Vanderbilt
• Sun Bowl: TCU vs. Utah State
• Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Illinois vs. Florida State
• Liberty Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma State
• Music City Bowl: Missouri vs. Iowa
• Holiday Bowl: Arizona State vs. Virginia Tech
• Alamo Bowl: BYU vs. Washington
• Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs. Tennessee
• Gator Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Clemson
• ReliaQuest Bowl: Penn State vs. Texas A&M
• Citrus Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan
• Pop-Tarts Bowl: Houston vs. Louisville

First-Round CFP Games

The first round of the CFP is shaping up to be wild. These games are loaded with drama and, honestly, could go either way:

• Dec. 18, 2026 – Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio: (9) LSU at (8) Ohio State
• Dec. 19, 2026 – Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas: (10) SMU at (7) Texas Tech
• Dec. 19, 2026 – Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind.: (11) Ole Miss at (6) Indiana
• Dec. 19, 2026 – Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.: (12) UNLV at (5) Georgia

Conference Representation in the CFP

The Big Ten’s got three of the top eight slots, which is kind of impressive. The SEC leads the way, though, with four teams in the CFP.

The ACC is sending two, and then you’ve got the Big 12 champ and UNLV making up the rest of the top 12. For Texas Tech, their seed dropped a bit—from No. 5 to No. 7—because there’s still some uncertainty about star transfer Brendan Sorsby at quarterback.

Potential CFP Quarterfinal Matchups

Here’s how the quarterfinals are projected to look:

• Jan. 1, 2027 – Peach Bowl, Atlanta: (1) Miami vs. (8/9) Winner
• Dec. 30, 2026 – Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz.: (4) Notre Dame vs. (5/12) Winner
• Jan. 1, 2027 – Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas: (2) Texas vs. (7/10) Winner
• Jan. 1, 2027 – Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.: (3) Oregon vs. (6/11) Winner

Top Contenders and Key Games

The ACC, SEC, and Big Ten champs are sitting among the top four seeds. Notre Dame joins them, which isn’t too surprising given their schedule under Marcus Freeman.

Honestly, the Fighting Irish look like a real contender this year. Miami’s reloaded thanks to the transfer portal, and this might be their best squad since the CFP kicked off.

Indiana and Oregon are in the mix, too. The Ducks seem to have a slight edge after spring, but it’s close.

And hey, don’t sleep on Ohio State, USC, Michigan, or Washington. Any of them could shake things up.

For more projections and some deeper analysis, check out the CBS Sports College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections.