Penn State’s Early Surge in College Football Playoff Contention
As the 2025 college football season creeps closer, Penn State’s in a pretty fascinating spot. Sure, they kicked things off with high hopes from oddsmakers, but lately, their playoff odds have slipped a bit.
Still, with new head coach Matt Campbell taking over, there’s this growing sense that Penn State might just sneak up on everyone and contend for the College Football Playoff (CFP). They’ve got a mix of experienced coaching, a quarterback who’s been around the block, and a schedule that honestly looks pretty manageable.
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Matt Campbell’s First Season at Penn State
Matt Campbell, who made a real name for himself at Iowa State, is now running the show at Penn State. It’s his debut season, and you can already feel a mix of nerves and excitement buzzing around Happy Valley.
ESPN’s Greg McElroy seems pretty upbeat about Campbell’s arrival. He even mentioned Penn State’s +5,000 futures odds to win the CFP as a nice value pick for bettors who like a little risk.
The Coaching Staff and Quarterback
One of the biggest reasons for hope? The coaching staff knows exactly what it wants, and they’ve got Rocco Becht back at quarterback. Becht, a fourth-year starter, already played for Campbell at Iowa State, so he gets the system inside and out.
He’s coming off shoulder surgery, but he’s still the guy Campbell trusts to steer the offense. McElroy points out that Becht “already speaks the language” of Campbell’s system, and that kind of familiarity is rare these days.
While a lot of teams are scrambling to break in new transfer quarterbacks, Penn State has a steady hand. That kind of continuity could quietly add a couple of wins to their season.
The Blended Roster
Campbell brought over 24 former Iowa State Cyclones, which is honestly wild. The roster’s now this mashup of new faces and old Penn State blood.
It’s a move that reminds some folks of Curt Cignetti, who brought a chunk of his James Madison squad to Indiana and turned them into champs. Penn State’s associate head coach, Terry Smith, seems to love the mix.
He says they’ve managed to keep their core guys, so they’re not building from scratch. This “blended family” approach could really pay off—at least, that’s the hope.
Defensive Overhaul
The defense, though, is a different story. New coordinator D’Anton Lynn is working with a bunch of fresh faces after losing a lot of starters.
Linebacker Tony Rojas is back, though, and McElroy calls him the “heartbeat of the defense.” Rojas could end up being the anchor Campbell needs right now.
Penn State’s switching to a 3-3-5 defensive setup, something Campbell’s used before. It’s a gamble, but if Lynn can get the pieces to click, it might just work out.
Challenges and Opportunities
Let’s be real, though—the road ahead isn’t exactly smooth. The offensive line is looking pretty thin, with only guard Anthony Donkoh returning as a starter.
McElroy doesn’t mince words: Big Ten lines are a different beast compared to the Big 12. If the O-line can’t gel, even a seasoned QB like Becht is going to have a tough time.
He puts it bluntly—“if you can’t block, you can’t breathe” in this conference. That’s going to be the make-or-break issue for Penn State this fall.
Favorable Schedule
On the bright side, the schedule looks friendly. Penn State dodges all the Big Ten’s returning playoff teams, which means a 10-2 finish isn’t out of the question.
With the new 12-team playoff setup, 10-2 probably gets you in, maybe even with some breathing room. McElroy thinks Penn State will be “boringly, frustratingly, and consistently good”—which, honestly, is what you want if you’re aiming for December football.
If things fall right, don’t be shocked if Penn State’s hosting a playoff game at home. Consistency and that soft-ish schedule could be the secret sauce for a big year.
Looking Ahead
Penn State’s got a new chapter starting with Matt Campbell. There are challenges, sure, but also some real opportunities on the horizon.
Experienced coaching and a seasoned quarterback give them a solid base. The schedule looks pretty favorable too.
Defense and the offensive line might be a bit shaky. Still, you can see the potential for something good here.
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