Penn State 2026 Football Playoff Hopes: Game-by-Game Record Prediction
Penn State football fans, get ready—2026 could be a wild ride. The Big Ten just dropped the final details for Penn State’s football schedule, and honestly, the Nittany Lions have a pretty smooth path ahead.
They dodge all three Big Ten squads that made the College Football Playoff last year. With Matt Campbell stepping in as head coach in Happy Valley, things are looking up. So, what’s the early outlook for the Nittany Lions’ season? Could this actually be the year they crash the College Football Playoff?
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Early Season Matchups
Marshall: Win
Penn State opens the 2026 season at home against the Marshall Thundering Herd. Marshall just wrapped up a 5-7 year and, frankly, they’ve had a rough go against power conference teams—just 7 wins in 41 tries since 2000.
They did bring in a bunch of new faces, but their overall talent is still ranked way down at No. 110 nationally. This one should be a comfortable win for Penn State.
Temple: Win
Next up, the Nittany Lions hit the road to play Temple. It’s their first away game against a Group of 5 team since, what, 2015?
Temple finished 5-7 last year. Their recruiting and transfer class is ranked No. 71, but the gap in talent is just too big. Penn State should handle business here.
Buffalo: Win
Then comes Buffalo, another team coming off a 5-7 season. Penn State has dominated MAC schools over the years, sitting at 39-2 overall.
Buffalo’s transfer and recruiting class is ranked No. 103, and they don’t have many returning starters. This matchup clearly favors Penn State.
Big Ten Challenges
Wisconsin: Win
Now it gets interesting. Penn State faces Wisconsin, who just can’t seem to get it together under Luke Fickell. The Badgers went 4-8 last season and their recruiting haul hasn’t impressed anyone.
Penn State should keep their streak alive and make it seven straight over Wisconsin.
Northwestern: Win
Northwestern squeaked past Penn State last season, so there’s a bit of a grudge here. The Wildcats finished 7-6 and loaded up on transfers, but Penn State’s got more proven talent.
With this one at home, the Nittany Lions should come out on top, though it might get close.
USC: Win
USC comes to Happy Valley with one of the most talented rosters in the country. Their incoming class is ranked No. 6, which is nothing to sneeze at.
But the Trojans have a history of struggling with cross-country trips. If this ends up as the White Out game, Penn State’s homefield advantage and USC’s brutal schedule leading up to it could tip things in the Lions’ favor.
Michigan: Loss
Michigan’s next, with Kyle Whittingham now at the helm. Their recruiting and transfer class is ranked No. 12, and they haven’t had as much roster turnover.
Playing in Ann Arbor against a possibly undefeated Wolverines squad? That’s a tall order. Penn State probably drops this one.
Purdue: Win
After a bye, Penn State gets Purdue at home. Purdue limped to a 2-10 finish last year and, even with a big transfer class, they’re lacking star power.
This feels like another solid win for the Nittany Lions.
Washington: Loss
Then comes a tough trip out west to face Washington. The Huskies finished 2025 at 9-4 and have quarterback Demond Williams Jr. returning.
Penn State hasn’t had much luck on West Coast trips. This one’s a real challenge, and it’s hard to see them pulling it out.
Final Stretch
Minnesota: Win
Minnesota’s been solid under PJ Fleck, but they haven’t quite broken through. They’re bringing back key players and have a strong recruiting class.
Still, Penn State’s got the homefield edge and more playmakers. Should be close, but the Lions get the win.
Rutgers: Win
Penn State basically owns Rutgers, with a 33-2 all-time record. Rutgers does have some important offensive players coming back, but their defense is still a mess.
Look for Penn State to keep their winning streak alive against the Scarlet Knights.
Maryland: Win
The Nittany Lions have dominated Maryland over the years, holding a wild 44-3-1 all-time record. Maryland does bring back blue-chip quarterback Malik Washington, but honestly, there’s not much support around him.
Their recruiting class looks pretty weak, and even with the homefield edge, it’s hard to see them closing the gap. Penn State should come away with another win here—anything else would be a shocker.
With a projected record of 10-2 overall and 7-2 in Big Ten play, Penn State seems poised for a legitimate College Football Playoff run in 2026. Michigan and Washington could cause some headaches, but the Lions’ schedule just feels set up for success.
Homefield advantage and a fresh start under Matt Campbell might be exactly what they need. If you want to dig deeper into the predictions, check out StateCollege.com.
