Oklahoma’s Playoff Chances: Paul Finebaum Believes 9-3 Record Possible
On a recent episode of The Paul Finebaum Show, Paul Finebaum floated the idea that Oklahoma could make the College Football Playoff (CFP) with a 9-3 record. It’s an interesting thought, honestly, and it brings up just how tough the current playoff road really is for teams with more than a couple of losses.
Finebaum’s take puts a spotlight on the value of a brutal schedule. The path for Oklahoma—or any contender with three losses—is razor thin, but not totally out of the question.
The Path to the College Football Playoff
Paul Finebaum, who’s been around the college football block, thinks Oklahoma could sneak into the CFP even with three losses. His reasoning? Oklahoma’s schedule is loaded, and the expanded playoff field could open the door for a team like that.
He didn’t just single out Oklahoma—he lumped Texas and LSU into that same conversation. All three have schedules that could, in theory, impress the committee enough to overlook a 9-3 finish.
Strength of Schedule
It’s really all about who you play. Oklahoma’s got a killer slate: Michigan, Georgia, and Texas are all on the schedule. Those are the kinds of games that, if you win, the committee notices.
And if you pull off an upset or two, especially away from home or against a ranked team, that’s the stuff the CFP committee tends to reward. It’s a tall order, but not impossible.
Historical Precedents
Here’s the thing—no team with a 9-3 record has actually made the College Football Playoff yet. Teams with 10-3 records have squeaked in, but only after playing in their conference championship games.
Look at Clemson in 2024 and Alabama in 2025. Both had three losses, but they made it thanks to that extra shot in the conference title game. That extra data point, as they say, can tip the scales.
The Challenges of a 9-3 Record
Finebaum admits it’s not exactly an easy climb. The playoff format guarantees spots for all four Power conference champs, plus maybe Notre Dame if they’re in the top 12.
That doesn’t leave much room for teams with three losses. The odds are, well, slim.
Recent Near-Misses
Recent history isn’t exactly kind to 9-3 hopefuls. In 2024, Alabama was the first team out with that record, edged by 11-2 SMU.
Texas in 2025? Same story—9-3 and on the outside looking in. The margin for error is so small, it’s almost unfair.
Importance of Conference Championships
Playing in your conference championship game really matters. If you’re 9-3 and not in that game, you’re missing a huge chance to change the committee’s mind.
Without that extra opportunity, it’s just a much steeper hill to climb.
Oklahoma’s Road Ahead
If you’re Oklahoma, the target should be 10-2 or better. With their schedule, that’d pretty much lock up a playoff spot.
They’ve got the talent for it—John Mateer staying healthy, a defense that’s starting to look legit, and a more seasoned group under Brent Venables.
Key Matchups
The early part of the season is a gauntlet. Michigan, Georgia, Texas—those games are going to define the whole year.
Win a couple of those, and the Sooners will have a résumé the committee can’t ignore.
Consistency and Finishing Strong
Oklahoma’s already shown it can hang in the SEC, making the playoff last year. Now, it’s about keeping that level week in and week out.
If they can finish strong, they might just take the decision out of the committee’s hands. But, hey, easier said than done, right?
Conclusion
Paul Finebaum tossed out the idea that Oklahoma could make the College Football Playoff with a 9-3 record. It’s an interesting thought, but honestly, there are a lot of hurdles in the way.
Sure, Oklahoma’s schedule is tough enough to maybe give them a shot most teams wouldn’t have. Still, if you look at history and how the playoff format works right now, it’s a long shot.
If we’re being realistic, the Sooners probably need to shoot for 10-2. That kind of record would almost lock in a playoff spot.
Curious about the details? You can dig into the full analysis over at Roundtable.io.
