Ohio State’s Path to Historic 9-3 College Football Playoff Berth

College football never stops changing. Guarantees? They’re rare. But if there’s been one, it’s that a team with three regular-season losses doesn’t make the College Football Playoff (CFP). That might shift in 2026, though. Ohio State could be the first 9-3 team to crash the CFP party, depending on how things shake out.

The Buckeyes have a brutal schedule ahead. They’ll need some luck—and probably a little chaos—to pull it off.

Ohio State’s Daunting 2026 Schedule

Let’s look at what’s coming for Ohio State. Their 2026 slate is stacked:

• Texas in a huge nonconference showdown in Week 2
• Big Ten battles with Indiana, Oregon, Iowa, USC, and Michigan

That’s a gauntlet, no way around it. Chalking up 10 wins won’t be a walk in the park.

Historical Context: Three-Loss Teams in the CFP Era

Since the CFP expanded to 12 teams in 2024, there have been 14 three-loss teams ranked in the post-Week 14 top 25. The best of those? Alabama, sitting at No. 11 after edging Auburn to finish 9-3.

Still, Alabama was left out. Arizona State and Clemson, both conference champs, grabbed the last spots thanks to automatic bids.

If Southern Methodist had beaten Clemson in the ACC title game, Alabama might’ve slipped in despite the three losses. Ohio State could end up in a similar spot, needing a break or two at the right time.

Strength of Schedule: A Double-Edged Sword

Ohio State’s 2026 schedule is, frankly, a beast. ESPN’s College Football Power Index (FPI) once pegged Alabama’s slate as the 20th-toughest a couple years back. Ohio State’s looks even tougher, with nine opponents in the top 50 of ESPN’s early 2026 SP+ rankings.

Quality of Losses: A Key Factor

The committee cares a lot about who you lose to. Alabama’s 2024 slip-up came against Vanderbilt, who finished No. 39 in FPI. If Ohio State’s losses come against heavyweights like Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon, or Michigan, they might avoid the dreaded “bad loss” label.

Looking at past three-loss teams, 2024 Missouri had the “best” losses—Texas A&M was their weakest at No. 16 in FPI. But even they got jumped by South Carolina and Alabama, both 9-3, because of head-to-head results. It’s a messy business.

Ohio State’s Brand Power

Let’s be honest: Ohio State’s name means something. The Buckeyes have history, fans, and a reputation that carries weight. That kind of brand power can sway opinions, and it’s helped teams like Alabama and Texas in the past.

Potential Pitfalls

But there’s a flip side. If Ohio State’s opponents don’t live up to the hype, their own resume could take a hit. Too many Big Ten teams clustered around No. 10-15 might push Ohio State down, especially if head-to-head losses pile up.

The Simplest Solution: Avoid Three Losses

Really, the easiest way forward is to just not lose three times. Under Ryan Day, Ohio State hasn’t dropped more than two games in a season since 2019. The last time they lost three? That was 2011, during Luke Fickell’s one-year run as head coach.

Conclusion: A Historic Opportunity

If Ohio State stumbles through a tough schedule and ends up 9-3, there’s still a real chance they could break new ground as the first team with that record to crash the 12-team CFP. The Buckeyes have that kind of brand power. Their schedule is brutal, sure, but it might just work in their favor if the losses are to quality teams.

With talk of expansion always in the air, maybe 2026 becomes the year Ohio State sets a new standard. Who knows? The CFP era could get a little more interesting.

For more details, check out the original article on Yahoo Sports.