Notre Dame’s Road to the College Football Playoff Bracket
Notre Dame’s journey to the College Football Playoff (CFP) is once again a hot topic. Debuting at No. 10 in the CFP selection committee’s first Top 25 rankings, the Irish are set up for another playoff push.
With a favorable schedule ahead, the odds look good. Head coach Marcus Freeman is keeping his team focused on the present, making sure they stay motivated and ready for every game.
Let’s take a look at Notre Dame’s current standing and the challenges they’ll face as they chase a coveted CFP spot.
Contents
Notre Dame’s Initial CFP Ranking and Path Ahead
Notre Dame landed at No. 10 in the committee’s first Top 25 rankings. That’s the highest spot for any two-loss team, even above three one-loss squads from Power 4 conferences.
This ranking shows the committee thinks highly of Notre Dame’s schedule and what they’ve done so far. It’s a solid starting point for a playoff run.
Upcoming Games and Expected Spreads
The Irish have four regular-season games left. In three of them, they’re heavy favorites—by about 20 points.
The other game, a November 15th trip to No. 24 Pittsburgh, could be tighter. Notre Dame’s favored by a touchdown there, but nothing’s guaranteed.
Winning out is key if they want to hold or boost their CFP ranking. It’s not a cakewalk, but it’s doable.
Comparative Rankings and Key Matchups
Notre Dame sits ahead of teams like No. 14 Virginia, No. 15 Louisville, and No. 17 Georgia Tech. Their only Top 25 win was against No. 19 USC, which helps their case.
Still, there are hurdles ahead. A few critical games could easily shake up the rankings.
Potential Playoff Scenarios
If Notre Dame makes the CFP, their first matchup could be against No. 7 BYU in Provo. According to The Athletic’s model, Notre Dame would be 9.5-point favorites.
Other projected matchups: No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 8 Texas Tech, and No. 12 Memphis vs. No. 5 Georgia. If the Irish get past BYU, a quarterfinal against No. 2 Indiana could be next. That sounds like a winnable game, but who really knows?
Challenges and Opportunities
Notre Dame’s in a good spot, but plenty could change. SEC games involving teams just behind Notre Dame are especially important.
For example, if No. 11 Texas beats No. 5 Georgia, Arkansas, and No. 3 Texas A&M, they might jump ahead. No. 13 Oklahoma has tough games too—against No. 4 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri, and LSU. Those results could shake things up.
Conference Championship Weekend
Conference championship outcomes matter, but maybe not as much as some think. Last year, Penn State lost the Big Ten title game and still stayed ahead of an idle Notre Dame.
SMU lost the ACC Championship on a last-second field goal and still made the CFP. The committee doesn’t always punish conference title game losses harshly, which adds some unpredictability.
Notre Dame’s Hosting Aspirations
If Notre Dame wants to host a CFP game, they’ll need to climb to No. 8. That means hoping some teams ahead of them stumble.
The remaining schedules for No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 BYU, and No. 8 Texas Tech will be huge. A few upsets could open the door for the Irish.
Remaining Schedules for Key Teams
- Georgia: at Mississippi State, No. 11 Texas, Charlotte, No. 17 Georgia Tech
- Ole Miss: Citadel, Florida, at Mississippi State
- BYU: at No. 8 Texas Tech, TCU, at Cincinnati, UCF
- Texas Tech: No. 7 BYU, UCF, at West Virginia
- Oregon: at No. 20 Iowa, Minnesota, No. 19 USC, at No. 23 Washington
Selection Committee Criteria
The CFP committee weighs head-to-head matchups heavily, especially when teams have similar records. Notre Dame’s loss to Miami in the opener stands out here.
Both teams have the same record now, but Notre Dame’s ranked higher thanks to their improvement and steadiness as the season’s gone on.
Committee’s Perspective
Committee chair Mack Rhoades says Notre Dame’s defensive strides and the steady play of freshman quarterback CJ Carr have impressed them. That consistency, especially lately, has helped the Irish in the rankings.
Conclusion
Notre Dame’s got a real shot at the College Football Playoff this year. The schedule looks pretty friendly, and their ranking doesn’t hurt either.
Of course, there’s always a catch—they’ll need to handle the rest of their games and maybe cross their fingers for a bit of luck elsewhere. The playoff picture? It’s still fuzzy, honestly, but the Irish are definitely in the conversation right now.
If you want to dig into the specifics of Notre Dame’s playoff odds or see what hurdles are ahead, check out the original article.
