Notre Dame’s CFP Chances: Evaluating Their 2025 Playoff Prospects

Notre Dame football has made a noticeable climb in the college rankings after stringing together five straight wins. They’re sitting at No. 13 in the coaches poll and No. 12 in the AP poll.

Their remaining strength of schedule, ranked 75th, could make things tricky for their College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes. Still, advanced analytics like SP+ and FEI seem to like the Fighting Irish a lot more than the official rankings do.

Let’s look at where Notre Dame stands right now, what their upcoming schedule looks like, and whether they really have a shot at the CFP.

Notre Dame’s Climb in the Rankings

The season didn’t start out great for Notre Dame. They dropped back-to-back games against Miami and Texas A&M.

Since then, though, they’ve rattled off five wins in a row. That streak pushed them up to No. 13 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and No. 12 in the AP poll, which has definitely gotten people talking.

But here’s the catch: their remaining schedule isn’t exactly stacked. They face Navy, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Stanford—none of whom are lighting up the rankings right now.

That could hurt their CFP argument, since strength of schedule is a big deal for the selection committee.

Strength of Schedule and Record

ESPN Analytics puts Notre Dame’s remaining strength of schedule at 75th. Up to this point, they’re No. 18 in strength of record and ninth in strength of schedule, but their only win over a ranked team came against then-No. 21 USC.

Their upcoming opponents have a combined record of 12-16. That’s not exactly the resume booster they’d probably like.

On the bright side, some advanced metrics are much kinder. ESPN’s Bill Connelly has Notre Dame at No. 6 in his SP+ rankings.

The SP+ system looks at tempo and opponent-adjusted efficiency. It skips over margin of victory and doesn’t weigh strength of schedule as heavily.

Advanced Analytics Favor Notre Dame

Connelly’s SP+ system, which has been around since 2008, currently has Notre Dame ranked sixth. They’re behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma.

He’s pointed out that if Notre Dame sneaks into the CFP, they might actually be a tough out. Their offense has been humming, and the defense looks a whole lot better than it did earlier in the season.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) also puts Notre Dame at No. 6 in opponent-adjusted possession efficiency. Brian Fremeau’s system ignores garbage time and focuses on meaningful plays, which is a nice touch.

The top five in FEI are Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana, and Alabama. Notre Dame is right there in the mix, just a step behind.

Key Metrics and Performance

Notre Dame is fourth in net yards per play and 10th in net points per drive, according to FEI. That says a lot about how they’re playing on both sides of the ball.

They’ve also picked off nine passes over their last three games. That’s the most interceptions they’ve had in any three-game stretch since 1977, which is wild.

Even so, ESPN’s CFP prediction model has Notre Dame just outside the projected playoff field. The model currently favors five SEC teams, three from the Big Ten, and two from the ACC.

Upcoming Challenges and Opportunities

The rest of Notre Dame’s schedule—Navy, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Stanford—doesn’t feature any teams high in the FEI rankings. That’s both a blessing and a curse.

Sure, it’s a chance to keep winning, but it probably won’t help their playoff case much. It’s a bit of a double-edged sword, honestly.

One thing that stands out, though: this team doesn’t seem to fold under pressure. They’ve trailed at some point in three of their last five wins, including three separate times against USC.

Their ability to rally and close out games could end up being the difference if the CFP committee is on the fence. That kind of resilience isn’t easy to measure, but it sure means something.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

Notre Dame’s performance this season brings back memories of 1977, when they bounced back from an early loss and grabbed the national championship. Their current form, plus those favorable advanced metrics, hints at a possible deep run—if they can just get into the CFP.

The first College Football Playoff Selection Committee meeting is still two weeks out. Even so, early signs are looking pretty good for Notre Dame.

The team’s fate probably comes down to whether they can pass that elusive “eye test” and keep the wins coming.

For more insights and a deeper dive into Notre Dame’s playoff chances, check out the full article on the South Bend Tribune.

As the season rolls on, it’s hard not to wonder if Notre Dame can keep the momentum and lock down a spot in the College Football Playoff. With a high-powered offense and a defense that seems to be figuring things out, the Fighting Irish might just make some noise if they get there.