Key College Football Playoff Deciding Games Before November 2023
The last month of the college football season is always crucial, but the College Football Playoff (CFP) field could be largely determined before we even reach November. Key matchups in the first ten weeks will help decide which teams have a real shot at the national championship.
This post looks at those pivotal games, the teams involved, and what’s at stake. If your favorite team isn’t mentioned, that doesn’t mean its games aren’t important. It simply reflects the brutal schedules and high-pressure matchups most likely to shape the CFP picture.
Early Season Showdowns: Michigan vs. Oklahoma
By Week 2, the college football landscape will already feature a major matchup between Michigan and Oklahoma. The result might not reshape the CFP field right away, but it will be a major talking point when the first CFP rankings arrive. Michigan faces a daunting schedule with four preseason top 10 opponents, including No. 18 Penn State and No. 22 Iowa.
This early test should offer a useful gauge of Michigan’s strength. A loss wouldn’t end the Wolverines’ CFP hopes, but it would leave them with much less room for error. Oklahoma, meanwhile, will try to establish itself early, knowing a slip-up could become costly later.
The Texas-Ohio State Clash
Texas was left out of the CFP last year, and its 14-7 loss to Ohio State played a major role in that decision. This year, the Longhorns host Ohio State in Austin, which makes the game feel almost unavoidable for their playoff hopes. Losing to a top-ranked team at home would be a difficult setback.
Ohio State has plenty at stake, too. A loss would make its path to the CFP more complicated and put even more pressure on the Buckeyes for the rest of the season. Both teams know this could be a defining moment in their championship chase.
ACC Chaos: Miami, SMU, and Louisville
The ACC is known for being unpredictable, and this season should be no different. Miami, a dominant force in the conference, will have its sights on the national championship. SMU and Louisville, though, are preseason favorites to challenge for one of the 12 CFP seeds.
If both teams stay in the race, their matchup could be decisive. Neither has many chances to regain momentum after a major loss, so this might look a lot like a CFP elimination game.
The Lane Kiffin Bowl: LSU vs. Ole Miss
This emotionally charged game matters a great deal in the CFP race. Lane Kiffin, now at LSU, will face his former team, Ole Miss. The SEC is notoriously competitive, and any team that finishes with a winning record should be in the conversation for an at-large bid. Kiffin also faces real pressure to return LSU to the CFP for the first time since 2019.
The matchup will offer an early read on LSU’s chances. A win could set the tone for a strong season, while a loss would seriously damage the Tigers’ playoff hopes.
USC’s Crucial Test Against Oregon
Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC has yet to produce a CFP appearance, and the game against Oregon will be a critical test. USC’s top-ranked recruiting class will have to show what it can do in a high-stakes matchup. The Trojans also face a difficult schedule that includes Ohio State, Indiana, Washington, and Penn State.
A win over Oregon would strengthen USC’s CFP resume, while a loss could put Riley on the hot seat. The result may validate the Trojans’ return to prominence, or raise some uncomfortable questions about whether they’re really ready to contend.
Texas A&M’s Redemption Game Against LSU
Texas A&M had a favorable schedule last year but suffered embarrassing losses to Miami and Texas. The game against LSU offers a chance at redemption. The Aggies can’t afford another setback, especially with a difficult schedule waiting at the end of the year.
A win would strengthen Texas A&M’s CFP hopes, while a loss could be a fatal blow. This matchup is less about LSU than it is about the Aggies showing they belong in the CFP conversation.
Other Key Matchups to Watch
Several other games could play important roles in shaping the CFP field:
- Tennessee vs. Texas: Tennessee needs a win to strengthen its CFP chances and potentially end Texas’ playoff bid.
- Georgia vs. Alabama: This game will test Alabama’s new quarterback, Keelon Russell, against Georgia’s formidable defense. A loss could put Georgia’s CFP hopes at risk.
- Red River Rivalry – Texas vs. Oklahoma: This game could redeem Texas’ season or give Oklahoma a painful reminder of last year’s downfall.
- Memphis vs. Tulane: A Group of 6 showdown that could determine which team remains in the CFP race.
- Notre Dame vs. BYU: Both teams sat on the CFP bubble last year, and this game will give the winner a valuable head-to-head advantage.
- Indiana vs. Michigan: This game will test Michigan’s mettle and could either spark its playoff hopes or end them early.
Conclusion: The Road to the CFP
The first two months of the college football season will be packed with high-stakes matchups that shape the CFP landscape. From early tests for Michigan and Oklahoma to redemption games for Texas and Texas A&M, every game matters. As the season moves along, these matchups could strengthen teams’ CFP resumes or expose their weaknesses.
For more in-depth analysis and a complete list of the games that will decide the College Football Playoff before November, visit Fansided.
