Final College Football Playoff Predictions: Alabama’s Playoff Fate Sealed
The College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Day is here, and honestly, the anticipation is thick in the air. With the latest twists in the conference championships, the selection committee’s got some real head-scratchers ahead.
The final rankings will decide who gets a shot at the national title. Some teams are about to be left on the outside, maybe unfairly so. This post takes a look at the possible final rankings and playoff matchups, with a few thoughts on why each team might land where they do.
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Top Contenders for the College Football Playoff
This year’s spotlight is on Notre Dame, Alabama, and Miami. The conference championships shook things up, especially after Alabama’s loss to Georgia.
Let’s break down the top contenders and where they might end up.
Indiana: The Undefeated Big Ten Champions
Why they could be here: Indiana’s the only undefeated team left, and they just grabbed the Big Ten title with a big win over Ohio State. They lead in ESPN’s strength of record metric, total efficiency, and game control.
Need to know: This is Indiana’s first Big Ten title since 1967 and their first outright since 1945. Pretty wild, right?
Ohio State: A Strong Case Despite a Key Loss
Why they could be here: Ohio State only lost to Indiana, the top-ranked team. Wins against Texas and Michigan show they’ve got the talent and the results.
Why they could be lower: Their schedule isn’t quite as tough as Georgia’s, which could matter.
Need to know: Ohio State will probably stick in the top four, likely grabbing a first-round bye as Big Ten runner-up.
Georgia: The SEC Champions
Why they could be here: Georgia got revenge on Alabama with a statement win in the SEC championship. Their strength of record and wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Georgia Tech help their case.
Why they could be higher: The committee could bump Georgia over Ohio State thanks to a tougher schedule and a more convincing win against Texas.
Need to know: That 28-7 SEC title win? Georgia’s biggest margin over Alabama since 1976. That’s a statement.
Texas Tech: The Dominant Big 12 Champions
Why they could be here: Texas Tech has been a force, especially on defense. Their only loss came when their starting QB was hurt, which the committee won’t ignore.
Need to know: Texas Tech leads the nation in defensive efficiency. That’s no small feat.
Teams on the Bubble
Some teams are sweating it out, hoping for a spot in the top 12. Here’s a closer look at who might sneak in—or just miss out.
Oregon: The Pac-12 Powerhouse
Why they could be here: Oregon’s got wins over Washington, USC, and Iowa. They’re top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is hard to argue with.
Need to know: Oregon’s a likely No. 5 seed, which means home-field advantage and a first-round matchup with James Madison awaits.
Ole Miss: A Solid SEC Performer
Why they could be here: Ole Miss has key wins, including one over Tulane. Their loss to Georgia keeps them a step behind, but they’re still in the mix.
Why they could be higher: Maybe the committee bumps them above Oregon because of the Tulane win—stranger things have happened.
Need to know: Despite coaching changes, Ole Miss looks set to host a first-round game. Not bad, all things considered.
Texas A&M: Consistent but Limited
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a solid season and beat Notre Dame. Still, not many top-25 wins, so their ceiling might be low.
Need to know: They’re in line to host a first-round home game—probably against Alabama. That’ll be interesting.
Oklahoma: The Defensive Standout
Why they could be here: Oklahoma’s defense is elite, and they beat both Tennessee and Alabama. That head-to-head win over Alabama? Huge.
Need to know: Oklahoma’s set to host a first-round game. Alabama’s loss pretty much locked that in.
Final Spots and Key Debates
The last few playoff spots are where things get messy. Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami, and BYU are all in the conversation, and the committee’s weighing head-to-heads and strength of schedule.
Notre Dame: Benefiting from Key Losses
Why they could be here: Notre Dame’s chances got a boost from BYU’s loss to Texas Tech and Georgia’s win over Alabama. The season-long debate between Notre Dame and Alabama now leans Irish after Bama’s stumble.
Why they could be lower: If the committee puts a lot of stock in Miami’s head-to-head win, Notre Dame could slide a bit.
Need to know: The Irish have been hanging out in the top 10 all year. Odds are, they’re in.
Alabama: The Tumbling Tide
Why they could be here: Alabama’s wins over Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee keep them in the mix. That earlier win over Georgia is still on the résumé.
Why they could be lower: But let’s be honest—their SEC title game flop and that opening loss to Florida State could push them below Miami.
Need to know: Alabama’s been a top-10 fixture, but lately, it’s feeling shaky.
Miami: On the Edge
Why they could be here: Miami beat Notre Dame head-to-head, and Alabama’s recent loss might open the door for them.
Why they could be higher: If the committee weighs Miami against Alabama, the Canes could edge the Tide—three losses is a lot, even for Bama.
Need to know: Miami’s fate really depends on how the committee stacks them up against Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s not clear-cut.
BYU: The Long Shot
Why they could be here: BYU’s got two losses, both to top-four teams, which isn’t bad. But that recent loss to Texas Tech hurts, no way around it.
Need to know: Odds are, BYU gets left out in favor of James Madison, the Sun Belt champs. But hey, that’s how it goes sometimes.
Projected Playoff Bracket
Looking at the projected rankings, here’s a rough idea of how the playoff bracket could shake out:
- First-round byes:
- No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
- No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
- No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
- First-round games: On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
- No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
- No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
- No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
- Quarterfinal games: At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential, and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
- No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
- No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
- No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
If you’re curious and want to dig into the full projected rankings and bracket, check out ESPN’s full analysis.
