College Football Week 12 Predictions: USC Upset, Alabama Dominates
As the college football season rolls into Week 11, it’s clear that a lot of preseason predictions missed the mark. Teams like Texas A&M and Indiana have completely flipped the script, while some other programs just haven’t lived up to the hype.
It’s a reminder—maybe a little humbling—of how tough it is to forecast anything in the wild, ever-changing world of college football. This week, let’s dig into the key matchups and betting lines for Week 11, with some analysis that might help you sort through the chaos.
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Week 11 Highlights: Surprising Performances and Key Matchups
Looking back at preseason polls is always entertaining once the season gets going. For example, undefeated, third-ranked Texas A&M didn’t get a single preseason vote to win the SEC title, and somehow the Aggies were picked to finish eighth in the league.
Indiana’s story is similar. Cleveland.com’s Big Ten preseason poll slotted unbeaten, No. 2-ranked Indiana at sixth. Goes to show—college football has a mind of its own.
ACC Showdown: Duke vs. Virginia
The ACC race is getting spicy, with five teams sitting on just one conference loss. This week, Darian Mensah and Duke host No. 20 Virginia.
Duke is coming off a rough loss at UConn, but they’re still a 6.5-point favorite here. Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris is hurt, and that’s a big blow for the Cavaliers.
Duke’s defense has had its issues, but Mensah’s been on fire with over 370 passing yards and a couple of touchdowns last week. Most folks expect Duke to win and cover the spread, but you never really know.
Conference USA Clash: Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State
Jerry Mack has pulled off a wild turnaround at Kennesaw State, taking them from 2-10 to first place in Conference USA. This Saturday, they’re 2.5-point favorites on the road against defending champs Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State’s got Cam Cook, who leads the country with 131 rushing yards per game. Cook’s coming off a monster showing—over 200 yards and the game-winner in the fourth quarter. He might just carry the Gamecocks to another win.
Big 12 Battle: TCU vs. BYU
TCU’s got its hands full going up against BYU. The Horned Frogs are 5.5-point underdogs, and BYU’s been rolling this season.
Still, you wonder if BYU might be looking ahead to Cincinnati. TCU’s Eric McAlister is eighth in the country in receiving yards per game and could go off for another huge day, but most predictions have BYU squeaking out a win in what should be a thriller.
USF and Navy both have one loss, so Saturday’s matchup in Annapolis matters—a lot. USF is favored by 10.5 points, and their quarterback Byrum Brown has been putting up big numbers.
Navy doesn’t really have the tools to take advantage of USF’s pass defense, so it looks like the Bulls could win by two scores. But hey, stranger things have happened.
Top 25 Matchups: Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh
No. 9 Notre Dame faces No. 23 Pittsburgh in a game that’s got big ACC title implications. Pitt’s been hot, winning five straight with freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel at the helm.
But Pitt’s missing key players like running back Desmond Reid and linebacker Rasheem Biles. Notre Dame’s defense should be able to clamp down on Pitt’s run game and force Heintschel into mistakes, which probably means a two-score win for the Irish.
SEC Showdown: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Big stakes in this SEC clash—No. 11 Oklahoma visits No. 4 Alabama. Oklahoma’s offense is just okay, and their defense hasn’t been forcing turnovers.
Alabama’s Ty Simpson is trying to keep his Heisman hopes alive with another big game. Even though the Tide’s running game has been shaky, they’re still expected to win by double digits. Feels about right.
SEC Rematch: Texas vs. Georgia
Here’s a rematch of last year’s SEC title game—No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia. This one could decide Texas’s postseason fate.
Texas hasn’t been great as a road underdog under Steve Sarkisian, and Georgia’s been a beast at home with Kirby Smart. Gunner Stockton, Georgia’s star quarterback, is expected to outplay Texas’s Arch Manning, which could mean an eight-point win for the Bulldogs.
Mountain West Face-Off: Boise State vs. San Diego State
San Diego State is looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Hawai’i as they host Boise State. The Broncos are 0-5 as road underdogs under Spencer Danielson, and losing quarterback Maddux Madsen doesn’t help.
San Diego State is expected to hold Boise State under 250 yards of offense and grab a 10-point win at home. Their conference title hopes are still alive, for now.
Pac-12 Showdown: Iowa vs. USC
Lincoln Riley’s USC squad still has a shot at the College Football Playoff—if they can win their last three games. That’s a big “if,” honestly. Iowa’s defense is tough, and their ground game can chew up the clock.
USC might already be thinking about their matchup with Oregon, which could be risky. Meanwhile, Iowa’s Kamari Moulton is expected to rack up over 125 total yards and, if you ask me, he just might punch in the game-winner in overtime. That’d be a huge upset and, frankly, it feels possible.
Want more numbers and predictions? Dive into the full article on College Football Predictions Week 11.
