College Football Playoff Rankings: Miami’s Surge Threatens Notre Dame’s Playoff Hopes

The College Football Playoff (CFP) race is getting wild. Some recent twists have made the playoff picture a lot more interesting.

Notre Dame, after stumbling out of the gate, has clawed its way back into the mix as a legit contender. But Miami’s sudden surge has thrown a wrench into everything.

Now both teams are fighting for a spot in that coveted playoff bracket. Head-to-head matchups and recent performances are under the microscope. So, what’s really going on here?

Notre Dame’s Resurgence After a Tough Start

Notre Dame opened the season with two gutting, last-second losses to big-time playoff hopefuls. A lot of folks started doubting their chances.

But the Fighting Irish have rattled off eight straight wins since then. They’ve even put up dominant showings against ranked teams like USC and Pittsburgh.

That run has landed them at No. 9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. Only Syracuse and Stanford are left on their schedule.

Key Factors in Notre Dame’s Turnaround

So, what’s changed for Notre Dame?

• Improved Defensive Secondary: The Irish defense, especially in the secondary, has made big strides since those early stumbles.
• Consistent Performances: They’ve won every game by multiple scores. That’s not an accident—it’s dominance.
• Strength of Schedule: Their schedule is still tough, and their only losses have come against top-ranked teams.

Miami’s Unexpected Rise

Miami’s season? It’s been a ride. After a 2-2 stretch with losses to unranked teams, the Hurricanes looked dead in the water.

But lately, they’ve exploded back into the scene. Now they’re sitting at No. 13 in the CFP Rankings.

Their season-defining moment came right away when they shocked Notre Dame with a last-second field goal. That’s one for the highlight reels.

Miami’s Path to Playoff Contention

What’s fueling Miami’s rise?

• Head-to-Head Victory Over Notre Dame: That win over Notre Dame could be huge in the playoff argument.
• Impressive Recent Performances: They’ve outscored opponents 79-17 in the last two weeks. That’s a statement.
• Strength of Schedule: SportsLine says Miami’s schedule is even a bit tougher than Notre Dame’s.

Comparative Analysis: Notre Dame vs. Miami

The CFP committee looks at a bunch of things: head-to-head, schedule strength, and how teams did against common opponents. Miami’s got the head-to-head edge and a slightly tougher schedule.

But Notre Dame’s losses came against higher-ranked teams, and the committee really seems to care about that.

Committee’s Perspective

According to CFP chair Hunter Yurachek, the committee doesn’t see Notre Dame and Miami as directly comparable right now. Notre Dame’s losses are to top-13 teams, while Miami lost to unranked ones.

That gap is keeping Miami out of Notre Dame’s tier, at least for now.

Scenarios for Miami’s Playoff Inclusion

So what would it take for Miami to sneak into the playoff bracket? Honestly, a lot.

Win the ACC Championship Game

First, Miami needs to win out against Virginia Tech and Pitt. But they’ll also need some other dominoes to fall in the last two weeks:

• Virginia beats Virginia Tech
• Pittsburgh beats Georgia Tech
• Duke beats North Carolina
• SMU beats Louisville
• Cal beats SMU
• Wake Forest beats Duke

If all that happens, Miami would face Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. They’d have tiebreakers over several teams, which could matter a lot.

Notre Dame Loses to Syracuse or Stanford

If Notre Dame drops a game to Syracuse or Stanford and finishes 9-3, their playoff hopes probably vanish. There’d just be too many at-large teams with better records, including Miami.

Other Key Outcomes

There are a few other things that could help Miami’s case, too:

• Texas Tech winning the Big 12
• BYU losing before the league title game or getting blown out by Texas Tech
• USC losing to Oregon
• Alabama losing at Auburn or Oklahoma losing to Missouri or LSU

If some of these results break Miami’s way, the at-large discussion could get a whole lot more interesting. Maybe, just maybe, that playoff spot is within reach.

The playoff race isn’t settled yet. The last few weeks of the season are shaping up to be pretty intense for both Notre Dame and Miami.

Notre Dame’s got the advantage right now. Still, Miami’s on a roll, and their recent win over the Irish keeps things interesting.

The Hurricanes need a few things to go their way. But hey, their playoff chances aren’t gone just yet.

For more updates and some deeper analysis on the College Football Playoff race, check out CBS Sports.