College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Predictions and Win Probabilities Revealed
The College Football Playoff (CFP) quarterfinals are almost here, and fans are buzzing. ESPN Analytics just dropped its Matchup Predictor numbers for the four second-round games, and the odds are fascinating.
As the stakes get higher, these predictions start to matter more—especially for those who love a good wager. Let’s dig into the matchups, win probabilities, and what might be in store for these much-hyped games. Here’s a closer look at each game set for December 31 and January 1.
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Ohio State vs Miami: Cotton Bowl Showdown
The Cotton Bowl lines up No. 2 Ohio State against No. 10 Miami on December 31 at 5:30 p.m. MST. ESPN Analytics gives the Buckeyes a 70.5% shot at winning, leaving Miami with a 29.5% chance to pull off the upset.
Ohio State’s Dominance
Ohio State has looked like a powerhouse all season. The Buckeyes’ offense is robust, and their defense? Pretty relentless.
That consistency earned them the second seed, and the high win probability feels justified. Hard to argue with the numbers, honestly.
Miami’s Underdog Potential
Miami comes in as the underdog, but they’ve had flashes of brilliance. Sometimes, they just find a way to make things interesting.
If Miami can capitalize on key moments, this game could get a lot more competitive than the stats suggest. Their offense can be dynamic, and you never quite know what trick they’ll pull next.
Texas Tech vs Oregon: Orange Bowl Battle
The Orange Bowl features No. 4 Texas Tech against No. 5 Oregon on January 1 at 10 a.m. MST. This one’s tight—Texas Tech has a 51.6% chance, while Oregon sits close behind at 48.4%.
Texas Tech’s Slight Edge
Texas Tech holds a slim advantage, mostly thanks to their balanced play. They’ve shown they can handle pressure when it counts.
The Red Raiders rely on tactical decisions and a solid defense. It’s worked so far, but will it hold up?
Oregon’s Competitive Spirit
Oregon’s offense is fast and flashy, and they’ll try to use that speed to overwhelm Texas Tech. The Ducks know how to make big plays when it matters.
Honestly, this matchup could go either way. Oregon’s unpredictability makes them a tough out.
Indiana vs Alabama: Rose Bowl Clash
The Rose Bowl has No. 1 Indiana facing No. 9 Alabama on January 1 at 2 p.m. MST. Indiana is the heavy favorite with a 71.4% chance, while Alabama gets a 28.6% shot.
Indiana’s Strong Season
Indiana earned that top seed with a potent offense and a defense that rarely gives an inch. They’ve outperformed almost everyone in their path.
Their win probability is sky-high for a reason. Still, you never know in these big games.
Alabama’s Challenge
Alabama’s used to the big stage, even as an underdog. Their history is full of surprise wins when it matters most.
They’ve got experience and strategy—maybe just enough to throw a wrench in Indiana’s plans.
Georgia vs Ole Miss: Sugar Bowl Duel
The Sugar Bowl features No. 3 Georgia against No. 6 Ole Miss on January 1 at 6 p.m. MST. Georgia is favored with a 60.1% chance, while Ole Miss has a 39.9% probability.
Georgia’s Tactical Advantage
Georgia’s season has been built on smart tactics and a tough defensive line. They like to control the pace and shut down opposing offenses.
That’s why they’re favored, but it’s not a lock.
Ole Miss’s Resilience
Ole Miss just doesn’t quit. Their resilience and willingness to take risks can shake things up.
If they find a rhythm, Georgia’s defense could have its hands full. The Rebels have a knack for making things interesting when you least expect it.
Conclusion and What to Expect
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are shaping up to be wild. There’s just something about these matchups that gets people talking.
ESPN Analytics has tossed out some win probabilities, which is interesting, if you’re into numbers. But let’s be honest, college football likes to surprise us—favorites stumble, underdogs catch fire, and suddenly, all those predictions look a little shaky.
If you’re trying to keep up with the latest takes and breakdowns, azcentral has a bunch of detailed previews. There’s always a new angle, a fresh stat, or some last-minute drama to watch for.
Oh, and don’t forget—games are on ESPN. If you’re not near a TV, FUBO’s streaming all of it live. Should be a blast. Let’s see who steps up when it matters most.
