College Football Playoff Predictions: Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama Battle for Final Spots
The 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) selection process has hit a boiling point. The last at-large spot is up for grabs, and, well, the debate is getting downright heated.
Notre Dame and Miami are both eyeing that final place in the 12-team bracket. The decision? It’s anything but simple.
Both teams have similar records. Miami beat Notre Dame head-to-head, which really complicates things for the CFP Selection Committee.
To make it messier, teams like Alabama, BYU, and Texas have thrown their own curveballs into the mix. This year’s selection is, honestly, one of the most hotly argued in a long time.
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Notre Dame vs. Miami: A Battle for the Final Spot
The spotlight’s squarely on Notre Dame and Miami as the committee gets ready to announce the last at-large bid. They’ve each lost twice, but Miami took down Notre Dame in the season opener.
Strength of Schedule
Notre Dame’s strength of schedule is ranked 42nd. Miami’s is just a tick lower at 44th.
Notre Dame has hung onto a higher spot in the rankings, thanks to their overall performance. Still, Miami’s head-to-head win might tip the scales.
Record Against Ranked Teams
Looking at games against currently ranked teams, Notre Dame is 1-2. Miami? They’re 1-0.
That’s a pretty compelling stat for Miami, especially in the clutch games.
SP+ Ranking
SP+ rankings are in play here too. Notre Dame sits at 5th, while Miami’s at 9th.
It’s an advanced metric that leans toward Notre Dame, but again, Miami’s win over them is tough to ignore.
The Alabama Dilemma
Alabama brings another twist to the playoff puzzle. They just lost by 21 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Now, with three losses, Alabama’s playoff chances are under the microscope. But their resume includes a road win over Georgia, which keeps them in the mix.
Arguments for Alabama
- Road win over Georgia
- 16-point win over Vanderbilt
- Strong overall resume despite three losses
Arguments Against Alabama
- Three losses, including a double-digit defeat to a 5-7 Florida State team
- Recent poor performance in the SEC Championship Game
Other Contenders: BYU and Texas
BYU and Texas are hanging around the edge of the conversation, but honestly, both have some pretty significant issues. BYU got blown out—again—by Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Texas, meanwhile, has been all over the place this season.
BYU’s Case
BYU put together an 11-1 regular season, which is impressive on paper. But those two big losses to Texas Tech really sting.
Their only top 25 win was against Utah. Their SP+ is 14th, which just might not cut it.
Texas’ Case
Texas went 3-2 against top 15 teams, picking up wins over Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma. That’s not nothing.
But a bad road loss to a 4-8 Florida team? That’s hard to overlook. With three regular-season losses, their playoff case feels shaky at best.
Projected Top Four Teams
The fight for the last few spots is wild, but the top four teams in the playoff rankings look pretty locked in:
- No. 1 Indiana (13-0)
- No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
- No. 3 Georgia (12-1)
- No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)
Indiana went undefeated and beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. That’s enough for the top spot.
Ohio State, even with that loss, is still a powerhouse. Georgia’s big win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game locks them in, and Texas Tech’s first 12-win season plus a Big 12 title puts them right in the mix.
Final Predictions
So, based on how things are shaking out right now, here’s a look at where the 12-team playoff field might land:
- Indiana
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Tulane
- James Madison
The selection show on Sunday is almost here. It’s probably going to be the wildest reveal we’ve seen in a while, honestly.
If you want to go deeper or see what the experts are saying, the full article is over at CBS Sports.
