College Football Playoff Predictions: Locks, Probables, and Bubble Teams
As the college football season hits its final weeks, the scramble for a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP) is getting wild. With the regular season wrapping up, only a handful of teams really have a shot at making the 12-team playoff field.
This piece takes a look at who’s locked in, who’s probably safe, and who’s sweating it out on the bubble. If you’re a fan or just someone who loves the drama of college football, it’s a good time to keep tabs on these teams.
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Locks for the College Football Playoff
Three teams are basically a sure thing for the playoff, each with more than a 99% shot according to ESPN’s playoff predictor. They’ve run the table in their conferences and, unless something truly bizarre happens, they’re in.
Ohio State
Record: 11-0, 8-0 Big Ten
Ohio State’s been a monster this year—undefeated, tough on both sides of the ball. They’ve got No. 15 Michigan up next, then the Big Ten championship.
Honestly, it would take a meltdown for the Buckeyes to miss out at this point.
Indiana
Record: 11-0, 8-0 Big Ten
Indiana’s gone toe-to-toe with Ohio State, also sitting pretty at 11-0. Their last hurdles are Purdue and the Big Ten title game.
If they keep rolling, it’s hard to imagine them getting left out.
Texas A&M
Record: 11-0, 7-0 SEC
Texas A&M rounds out the unbeaten trio, dominating the SEC so far. Next up: a big one against No. 16 Texas, then the SEC championship.
The Aggies just need to keep doing what they’ve done all year.
Probable Playoff Teams
Three more teams are sitting in a good spot, with playoff chances between 94% and 99%. They’ve had strong seasons, but can’t let up now.
Georgia
Record: 10-1, 7-1 SEC
Georgia’s been near the top of the SEC, dropping only one game. They’ve got No. 23 Georgia Tech left and then the SEC title game.
With a 99% shot at the playoff, the Bulldogs just need to finish the job.
Texas Tech
Record: 10-1, 7-1 Big 12
Texas Tech has only slipped once this year. They’ve got West Virginia next and then the Big 12 championship.
If they stay on track, their 94% playoff odds should hold up.
Oregon
Record: 10-1, 7-1 Big Ten
Oregon’s been solid, dropping just one game in the Big Ten. The season finale against Washington is a big one.
At 94% playoff odds, they’re in a good spot but can’t afford a misstep.
Bubble Teams
Now it gets interesting. A bunch of teams are on the bubble, needing to win out and maybe get a little help elsewhere. Their playoff odds are all over the place—from about 20% up to 88%.
Notre Dame
Record: 9-2
Notre Dame’s got to beat Stanford to keep their playoff dreams alive. With an 88% chance, a win would be huge for them.
Ole Miss
Record: 10-1, 6-1 SEC
Ole Miss faces Mississippi State next, and they pretty much have to win to stay in the mix. Their 87% shot means the pressure’s on.
Oklahoma
Record: 9-2, 5-2 SEC
Oklahoma needs a win over LSU to keep hopes alive. Their 85% playoff odds say it all—this is do or die.
Alabama
Record: 10-1, 6-1 SEC
Alabama’s got Auburn up next and maybe the SEC championship after. At 68% playoff odds, the Tide really can’t afford a stumble.
Teams Needing Help
Some teams still have a shot, but it’s a long road. They’ll need to win out and hope a few other games break their way. Their playoff chances range from 20% up to 52%.
SMU
Record: 8-3, 6-1 ACC
SMU needs to beat California and win the ACC title game. Their 52% playoff odds make it clear—it’s an uphill climb.
North Texas
Record: 10-1, 6-1 American
North Texas has to take down Temple and then win the American championship. At 43% playoff odds, they’re still in the conversation, but just barely.
BYU
Record: 10-1, 7-1 Big 12
BYU faces UCF, then the Big 12 title game. A win in both is a must, and their 39% odds show just how tough that road is.
James Madison
Record: 10-1, 7-0 Sun Belt
James Madison needs to get past Coastal Carolina and win the Sun Belt. Even then, their playoff odds are only 36%.
Virginia
Record: 9-2, 6-1 ACC
Virginia’s got to beat Virginia Tech and win the ACC title game. At 29%, the odds aren’t great, but hey, stranger things have happened.
Tulane
Record: 9-2, 6-1 American
Tulane has to take care of Charlotte, then win the American title game. Their 26% playoff shot isn’t much, but it’s not zero.
Miami
Record: 9-2, 5-2 ACC
Miami’s got a tough road ahead. To make it, they’ll need to beat No. 22 Pittsburgh and then somehow win the ACC title game.
Their playoff odds? Just 20%. That’s not exactly comforting if you’re a Hurricanes fan.
If you’re following the playoff chase, things are getting tense as the regular season wraps up. Everyone’s watching, wondering who’ll make the cut and who’ll get left out.
Curious for more breakdowns or just obsessed with the latest updates? Head over to Oregon Live.
