College Football Playoff Contenders: Potential Surprises and Bubble Teams
The college football season is barreling toward its end, and the race for those College Football Playoff (CFP) spots? Tighter than ever. Several teams are fighting for a place in the top four, so these last weeks are going to be wild—probably full of drama and a few surprises nobody saw coming.
This piece takes a look at the current playoff picture. Who’s basically in, who’s still sweating, and is there a dark horse lurking in the shadows? For the full breakdown of odds and scenarios, you can check out the article on The Athletic if you want to dig even deeper.
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Teams with High Odds to Make the Playoff
Some teams have carved out a solid spot as CFP favorites, with strong records and good odds. Still, nothing’s really locked in—one bad game and the picture changes fast.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) are sitting at a 93 percent chance to make the CFP. They lost early to Miami and Texas A&M but bounced back well.
That said, their resume isn’t exactly stacked—only one top-25 win, against No. 17 USC. The next big test is a road game against a hot No. 22 Pitt squad. A loss there, and their odds could tumble to 30 percent. No pressure, right?
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks (8-1) are at 89 percent after surviving a trip to Iowa City. But they’ve got Washington and USC looming.
Oregon’s had some shaky moments against weaker teams. One loss could kill their Big Ten title dreams, and two would almost certainly knock them out of CFP talk.
Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) look pretty comfortable with a 96 percent chance at the CFP. They’ve got No. 10 Texas and No. 16 Georgia Tech to close out the regular season.
They seem better this year, but if they finish 9-3, things could get dicey—just ask Alabama fans how that worked out last year.
Teams on the Bubble
Some teams are right on the edge. They’ve got the talent, but the path ahead isn’t easy. One slip-up and they’re probably out.
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils (5-4) are 4-1 in conference play, which gives them an 18 percent shot at the CFP. They face No. 19 Virginia, North Carolina, and Wake Forest.
Duke basically needs to win out and hope the rest of the chips fall their way. Not impossible, but definitely a tall order.
Utah Utes
The Utah Utes (7-2) sit at 22 percent for the CFP. They’re a game behind in the Big 12, but their schedule isn’t too scary—Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas State are up next.
Utah’s been solid against unranked teams. If they can get to 10-2, maybe they’ve got an argument for the committee.
Tulane Green Wave
The Tulane Green Wave (7-2) have a 15 percent shot at the playoff. The Group of 5 race is crowded, but Tulane’s path isn’t so bad—Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, and Temple are all winnable games.
If they win their league title game, their odds could get a nice bump.
Long Shots with Potential
There are always a few teams hanging around with slim odds. College football can get weird, though, so you never really know.
South Florida Bulls
The South Florida Bulls (7-2) jumped from 18 to 34 percent after a string of good results. They’ve got a tiebreaker over North Texas and a big game coming up against Navy.
USF has a pretty clear path to the AAC title game, and who knows—maybe a CFP spot if things break their way.
Louisville Cardinals
The Louisville Cardinals (7-2) were in a good spot last week, but a shocking loss to Cal tanked their odds to 5 percent. Now they’re sixth in the ACC and basically need a miracle for the CFP.
USC Trojans
The USC Trojans (7-2) are sitting at 20 percent. They’ve got big games against Iowa and Oregon coming up.
If they win both, suddenly their resume looks a whole lot better—and their playoff odds do too.
Key Matchups to Watch
The last few weeks are loaded with matchups that could totally shake up the CFP race. Here are a few that could really move the needle:
Notre Dame vs. Pitt
If Notre Dame beats Pitt, their CFP odds shoot up to 97 percent. Pitt’s would fall to 12 percent.
If Pitt pulls off the upset, Notre Dame’s odds drop to 30 percent and Pitt keeps a faint hope alive.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Oklahoma knocked Alabama out of the CFP last year, and now the Tide might get their revenge. If Oklahoma wins, their odds go up to 52 percent and Alabama’s drop to 68 percent.
But if Alabama wins, they’re almost a lock at 98 percent, while Oklahoma’s chances basically disappear at 3 percent.
Virginia vs. Duke
This one’s huge for the ACC. Both teams have just one conference loss.
If Virginia wins, their odds rise to 26 percent and Duke’s drop to 1 percent. A Duke win flips it—Duke jumps to 25 percent, Virginia slides to 3 percent.
Texas vs. Georgia
If Texas manages to beat Georgia, their College Football Playoff odds jump to 35 percent. Georgia, on the other hand, would see their chances drop to 80 percent.
But if Georgia comes out on top, their odds shoot up to 99 percent. Texas would be left hanging by a thread, with just a 2 percent shot at making it.
The last month of college football is shaping up to be wild. Every single game feels like it could change everything for the playoff race.
Curious about the rest of the playoff scenarios? Check out the full breakdown over at The Athletic.
