College Football Playoff Chaos: SEC Dominance, Big Ten Upsets, and More

The College Football Playoff (CFP) race is getting wild with just three weeks left in the regular season. Conference championships are right around the corner, and things are about to get even more unpredictable.

The projections model says nine teams have at least a 79 percent shot at making the bracket. But with 18 teams sitting at a 20 percent chance or better, nobody really knows how this’ll shake out.

Let’s look at six of the most chaotic brackets that could actually happen. College football thrives on this kind of unpredictability. Want to go even deeper? Check out the New York Times Athletic for a full breakdown.

SEC Dominance and Big Ten Top Seeds

Here’s one scenario that’s just bonkers: the SEC goes on a tear, but every contender ends up with two losses except for Ole Miss, who drops only one. Texas wins the SEC title and beats Texas A&M twice. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt somehow stuns Tennessee in Knoxville.

This chaos lets the SEC grab six of the seven at-large bids. All four first-round home games? Also SEC teams. And yet, the Big Ten still nabs the top two seeds. It’s a mess, but the kind of mess that makes this sport great.

Key Matchups

• Duke at Texas A&M – Mike Elko facing his old squad. That’s got some extra spice.
• North Texas at Alabama – Honestly, not the most thrilling game on paper.
• Vanderbilt at Georgia – All-SEC quarterfinals are always wild.
• Oklahoma at Texas – Another all-SEC battle, and you know the stakes will be sky-high.

Iowa’s Improbable Path

Iowa’s still alive for the CFP, even after losing to Oregon. For them to sneak in, a bunch of other dominoes need to fall.

Iowa has to win out. Ohio State needs to lose to both Rutgers and Michigan. Michigan must drop a game to Northwestern. Oregon? They’d have to lose two of their last three. If all that happens, Iowa finishes 10-3 and wins a tiebreaker over Ohio State and Michigan thanks to its conference opponents’ records.

This would set up a rematch against Indiana. Iowa would slide in as the No. 9 seed. Wild, right?

Additional Chaos

• Cincinnati beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship, giving the conference two playoff bids.
• South Florida sneaks into the No. 11 seed because SMU wins the ACC and nabs the last spot.

Georgia Tech’s Unexpected Run

Georgia Tech wins out until the ACC Championship, where they fall to Duke. Still, the Yellow Jackets stay in the mix because the six teams ahead of them all pick up another loss somewhere.

What’s weird is Georgia Tech remains behind Georgia in the rankings, even after beating them in the final regular season weekend. The ACC champ actually gets left out, while two Group of 5 teams—South Florida and James Madison—get in on the strength of their records.

Intriguing Quarterfinals

• Alabama vs. Georgia in Tuscaloosa with a Rose Bowl spot on the line. That’s a heavyweight fight.
• Georgia Tech at Texas Tech – Two programs not used to this stage, both hungry.
• South Florida at Notre Dame – Could be a sneaky good game.

Arizona State’s Miraculous Journey

Arizona State’s playoff odds are basically a coin toss gone wrong—just 3 percent. But let’s say they win out and take the Big 12 title from Texas Tech. That sets up a third meeting between the Sun Devils and Red Raiders.

USC wins out too, including a win over Oregon, and that’s enough for the Trojans to grab the final at-large bid. SMU claims the ACC, and James Madison grabs the last automatic spot.

Noteworthy Points

• Pitt’s win over Notre Dame – Pitt wins out, snags the ACC title, and leaves Notre Dame as the first team out. Ouch.
• Texas beats Georgia on their way to the SEC title game, but then loses to Alabama.

Ohio State’s Redemption

Ohio State pulls off a three-way tiebreaker, gets to Indianapolis, and beats Indiana for the Big Ten crown. That alone shakes up the bracket in a big way.

Texas A&M finishes 13-0 and claims the No. 1 seed. Georgia, despite not playing in the SEC title game, lands at No. 2. Ohio State jumps Indiana but can’t quite catch 12-1 Texas Tech for the No. 3 spot. Alabama, after losing the SEC title, drops down to No. 7. College football, man—never boring.

Exciting Matchups

• Indiana vs. Tulane – Indiana gets a shot at redemption at home after missing that bye. Should be interesting to see how they handle the pressure.
• Michigan at Alabama – That’s a heavyweight battle, honestly. Stakes don’t get much higher than this.
• Notre Dame vs. Oregon – This one feels like it could go either way. Not sure anyone can call it with confidence.

The College Football Playoff race is shaping up to be wild. If you want the latest scenarios and projections, check out the New York Times Athletic.