College Football Playoff Bracket: Impact of Conference Titles on Selection Sunday
Welcome to the latest edition of our College Football Playoff projections. The season’s almost over, and the buzz around playoff spots is hard to ignore.
We’re diving into the updated playoff projections, mixing in some championship game predictions and a few key matchups that might shake things up. With just two weeks until Selection Sunday, things are starting to make a bit more sense, but there’s still plenty to sort out.
Contents
Projected Playoff Field According to Austin Mock’s Model
As we get closer to the end of the college football season, Austin Mock’s model gives us a look at how the playoff field could shape up. Unlike the usual opinion-based picks, this one leans heavily on data and probability.
Ohio State: The No. 1 Seed
If Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are healthy for Ohio State against Indiana, the Buckeyes are on track to grab the No. 1 seed. Their steady play and smart coaching have kept them at the top.
Texas A&M: The SEC Champion
Marcel Reed and Texas A&M are pegged to take the SEC title, which should land them the No. 2 slot. The Aggies have fought through some tough games and earned their spot in the conversation.
Indiana and Georgia: Securing the No. 3 and 4 Seeds
Indiana, the Big Ten runner-up, and Georgia round out the top four. Indiana’s had a surprisingly strong season, while Georgia’s just been Georgia—steady and relentless in the SEC.
Conference Champions and Key Matchups
The projections also spotlight a few conference champs and matchups that could tip the scales.
Big 12 and American Championships
Texas Tech is expected to win the Big 12 by beating BYU again. North Texas, meanwhile, might pull off an upset over Tulane for the American title, which would be something to see.
ACC and Pac-12 Championships
SMU’s bounced back after losses to Baylor and TCU, and now they’re projected to edge Virginia for the ACC crown. In the Pac-12, Oregon’s late push against Iowa, USC, and Washington has them just ahead of Ole Miss at sixth.
Additional Contenders
Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama are still in the mix, with BYU and Miami just outside looking in. The playoff race feels tighter than ever.
Potential First-Round Matchups
First-round playoff games could bring some real fireworks.
North Texas vs. Texas Tech
North Texas, with the country’s highest-scoring offense, faces Texas Tech’s third-ranked scoring defense. That’s the kind of clash fans love—offense vs. defense, something’s gotta give.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Ole Miss will host Alabama, a matchup between old SEC West rivals. No official word on Lane Kiffin’s status, but either way, it’s hard not to get excited for this one.
Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Oklahoma hasn’t beaten Notre Dame at home (0-5 all-time), but maybe this is the year? Home-field could be a difference-maker.
SMU vs. Oregon
SMU and Oregon have only met twice before, both in Texas bowl games way back when. This time, there’s a bit more on the line, and it’s a fun little bit of history.
Potential Quarterfinal Matchups
The quarterfinals look set to raise the stakes even higher.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame/Oklahoma Winner
Whoever wins between Notre Dame and Oklahoma gets Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. That’s a matchup you circle on the calendar—classic programs, big stage.
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss/Alabama Winner
Texas A&M will play either Ole Miss or Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Oddly enough, these three SEC teams didn’t play each other this year, which could make things unpredictable.
Indiana vs. Oregon/SMU Winner
Indiana’s up next for the winner of Oregon-SMU in the Cotton Bowl. Both teams have a lot to prove, and this could be a defining moment.
Georgia vs. Texas Tech/North Texas Winner
Georgia will take on whoever comes out on top between Texas Tech and North Texas in the Orange Bowl. Not a bad way to close out the quarterfinals, honestly.
Upcoming Games with CFP Significance
Several upcoming games could shake up the College Football Playoff picture. Here are five matchups you probably don’t want to miss:
- Georgia vs. Georgia Tech at Atlanta, 3:30 p.m. Friday, ABC
- Ohio State at Michigan, noon, FOX
- Miami at Pittsburgh, TBD
- Oregon at Washington, 3:30 p.m., CBS
- Alabama at Auburn, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Every one of these games could end up deciding who makes the playoff. If you care about college football at all, you’ll want to keep an eye on them.
Selection Sunday is creeping up fast, and the anticipation is pretty much off the charts. Curious about the latest projections and wild scenarios? The New York Times has you covered.
Honestly, who knows how it’ll all shake out? Just hang on—this season’s finish could get wild.
