College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections After Week 12 Shakeup

Week 12 of the college football season brought some seismic shifts to the College Football Playoff (CFP) picture. Oklahoma’s wild upset over Alabama means both teams are now 8-2, and that’s sent shockwaves through the playoff and bowl landscape.

The Sooners have jumped right into the playoff conversation. Alabama’s grip on a top-four seed? Not what it was just a week ago.

Notre Dame’s lurking, too, and there’s a whole crowd of two-loss teams hoping to sneak in before it’s all said and done.

College Football Playoff Projections: Week 12

The latest College Football Playoff and bowl projections from ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach paint a pretty detailed picture of how things could shake out. The 12-team playoff field will include the five highest-ranked conference champs and the next seven highest-ranked teams.

The top four teams—no matter their conference—get that coveted first-round bye. That’s a big deal.

First-Round Games

First-round games? Those are happening at the higher seed’s home stadium. Here’s what the matchups might look like, according to the experts:

• Kyle Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
• Mark Schlabach: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
• Kyle Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
• Mark Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Oregon
• Kyle Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
• Mark Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
• Kyle Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
• Mark Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Bonagura’s got Oklahoma surging, maybe locking up a playoff spot if they can get past Missouri and LSU. Schlabach, meanwhile, isn’t so sure about Alabama’s chances, especially with the Iron Bowl against Auburn looming.

Quarterfinals and Semifinals

Quarterfinals will play out in the classic New Year’s Six bowls, with semifinals and the title game after that. Bonagura and Schlabach have their own takes on how the matchups shake out:

Quarterfinals

• Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana (Bonagura) / No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana (Schlabach)
• Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia (both experts)
• Rose Bowl Game: No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Bonagura) / No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Schlabach)
• Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M (Bonagura) / No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M (Schlabach)

Bonagura seems pretty interested in the Georgia vs. Texas Tech matchup, especially with Tech’s offense humming when Behren Morton’s healthy. Schlabach’s got his eye on Georgia’s defense, which, honestly, has been a force lately.

Semifinals

• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Bonagura) / No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Schlabach)
• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana (both experts)

Both guys agree on the top two seeds: Ohio State and Indiana. Bonagura points to Ohio State’s dominance all year. Schlabach can’t help but highlight Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin—both are real Heisman threats.

National Championship

The national title game is set for January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Bonagura and Schlabach both see No. 1 Ohio State facing No. 2 Indiana for all the marbles.

Championship Breakdown

Bonagura thinks Ohio State’s the clear favorite, barely breaking a sweat since August. Schlabach’s a bit more cautious, pointing to Ohio State’s defense and the possibility of a bruising matchup if Georgia sneaks past Texas Tech.

Bowl Season Overview

Outside the CFP, bowl season brings 35 games, starting with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on December 13. A few matchups stand out:

• Cricket Celebration Bowl: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State (Bonagura) / Jackson State vs. Delaware State (Schlabach)
• LA Bowl: Arizona vs. San Diego State (Bonagura) / Washington vs. San Diego State (Schlabach)
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo vs. UNLV (Bonagura) / Ohio vs. UNLV (Schlabach)
• TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. LSU (Bonagura) / Miami vs. Texas (Schlabach)
• AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis (both experts)

Bonagura and Schlabach break down each bowl, offering takes on team form and possible upsets. This bowl season feels like it’s got more storylines than usual, and honestly, it’s tough not to get a little excited about what’s coming.

Conclusion

The college football season’s winding down, and things are getting wild. That playoff race? It’s a mess, and honestly, it’s never felt more unpredictable.

Oklahoma took down Alabama, which nobody really saw coming. Now, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Indiana are all scrambling for a shot at those top spots.

There’s a lot riding on these last games. If you’re a fan, buckle up—this finish could be a rollercoaster.

Want to dig deeper? Check out the full article on ESPN for projections and analysis.