College Football Playoff 2025: First Committee Ranking Bubble Watch Analysis

The College Football Playoff landscape is really starting to sizzle as Week 10 rolls around. Teams everywhere are scrambling for a shot at the postseason, and the pressure is obvious.

The first batch of rankings from the selection committee has everyone buzzing. Some teams are sitting pretty, others are on thin ice, and a few are clinging to hope.

Let’s get into the standings, where things might shift, and the matchups that could flip everything upside down. Who’s in? Who’s out? And who’s still got a puncher’s chance?

ACC: Fighting from Behind

The ACC isn’t in a great spot right now—none of its teams cracked the top 12 in the initial Playoff rankings. No. 14 Virginia is the only ACC squad in the bracket if it dropped today.

The Cavaliers are the fourth-highest ranked conference champ, but there’s still a little wiggle room for them. It’s not a comfy cushion, though.

Teams on the Bubble

Last team in: Virginia. Virginia’s got hardly any room for mistakes. Their only real statement win came against Louisville, so they need to keep stacking wins and cross their fingers for stumbles from teams above.

First team out: Louisville. They took down Miami, which helps, but that overtime loss to Virginia stings. If they want in, they’ll need to win out and hope for some chaos elsewhere.

Still in the Mix

• Duke
• Georgia Tech
• Miami
• SMU

These teams haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the ACC title race. Still, their résumés need a lot of work if they want to sneak in.

SEC: Powerhouse Conference

The SEC just keeps flexing its muscles in the playoff race. Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M would all be in if the bracket came out now.

Teams on the Bubble

Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a decent spot, but they can’t afford a slip-up against The Citadel, Florida, or Mississippi State. A second loss would probably knock them out.

First team out: Texas. Texas got a boost from some losses up top and their head-to-head win over Oklahoma. Still, their spot feels shaky—they’ve got to keep winning to avoid falling off the radar.

Still in the Mix

• Missouri
• Oklahoma
• Vanderbilt

These squads could make things interesting if they pick up some big wins soon. The window’s open, but it’s not wide.

Big Ten: The Battle for Supremacy

The Big Ten’s as competitive as ever. Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon are all in the current playoff picture.

There are a few others lurking, though, and it feels like anything could happen.

Teams on the Bubble

Last team in: Oregon. The Ducks have a tough road ahead: Iowa, Washington, and USC are all looming. Every win matters now.

First team out: USC. They’ve dropped two, but that win over Michigan keeps them in the conversation. If they knock off Oregon on Nov. 22, things could get wild.

Still in the Mix

• Iowa
• Michigan
• Washington

These teams are still hanging around and have a shot to shake things up if they can string together some wins.

Big 12: A Tight Race

The Big 12 is seriously up for grabs. BYU and Texas Tech are in the playoff mix for now, but it’s crowded.

Teams on the Bubble

Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can’t afford another conference loss. Beating BYU would be a big résumé booster, no doubt.

First team out: Utah. Two losses to the Big 12’s top dogs have them on the outside looking in. They need some help from above to have a shot at the title game.

Still in the Mix

• Cincinnati

The Bearcats have a faint hope at the Big 12 title game. They’d need to win out and get a little luck elsewhere.

Independent: Notre Dame’s Path

Notre Dame suddenly has a clearer road to the playoff after a few key teams stumbled. They’re riding a six-game win streak and could run the table, but that game against Pitt on Nov. 15 looks tricky.

Group of 5: Memphis Leading the Pack

Memphis is out front in the American Conference and would snag a playoff spot as the fifth-highest ranked conference champ. The Tigers just need to keep winning to hold on.

Still in the Mix

• USF
• North Texas
• James Madison
• San Diego State

These teams aren’t out of it yet. If they can pull off some key wins and get a bit of help, who knows?

Conclusion

The College Football Playoff race is getting wild as we head into the last stretch of the season. Teams everywhere are scrambling for a spot—some look solid, but plenty are still on the edge.

Honestly, the next few weeks could change everything. A couple of big wins or losses, and someone’s whole season shifts.

If you’re itching for all the details, the full article on ESPN has the latest standings and matchups. Worth a look if you’re following the drama.