College Football Playoff 2025 Bubble Watch: Post-Week 8 Analysis
The 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) is in full swing. As we head into Week 8, the playoff picture keeps shifting.
This first year of the 12-team format is already proving more forgiving. Several teams are still hanging around in the hunt, even with two losses on their record.
Let’s dig into where things stand right now. We’ll take a look at key teams from each Power 4 league, plus independents and Group of 5 squads, and sort them by their playoff prospects.
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ACC Contenders and Enigmas
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) has had its share of surprises. Miami’s recent stumble against Louisville changed the landscape.
Now, Georgia Tech and Virginia have the inside track to the ACC championship game. That’s not something many of us expected back in September.
Spotlight: Virginia
Virginia’s 30-27 overtime win at Louisville really boosted their playoff hopes. They suddenly have a 39.4% chance to make the ACC championship game.
But that early-season loss to NC State could haunt them if they don’t win the ACC or end up a two-loss runner-up. Still, running the table is on the table—ESPN Analytics favors them in all but one of their remaining games.
Enigma: Louisville
Louisville’s a bit of a wild card. That overtime loss to Virginia stings, but the win over Miami shows they’re capable of big things.
Their résumé looks a little thin, though. They do have a solid nonconference win against James Madison, but they’ll need to keep playing at a high level to stay in the CFP mix.
ESPN Analytics gives them a 16% shot to win out. Their biggest test left is Nov. 22 at SMU.
Big 12 Teams on the Bubble
The Big 12 is, as usual, packed with drama. Texas Tech and Cincinnati are two teams to keep an eye on as the race heats up.
Spotlight: Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s narrow loss to Arizona State dropped them out of the top-12 projection. Still, they’re very much in the mix, with a 61% chance to make the Big 12 championship game.
If they win the Big 12 but finish outside the committee’s top 12, they’d still snag a playoff spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champs. ESPN Analytics gives them a 23.2% chance to win out.
Enigma: Cincinnati
Cincinnati is undefeated in Big 12 play and 6-1 overall. Their schedule only gets rougher from here.
They’re sitting behind Texas Tech and BYU in the odds to reach the conference title game. Key matchups against BYU, Utah, and TCU will decide if the Bearcats can keep this thing rolling.
Big Ten Powerhouses
The Big Ten is always in the CFP spotlight. Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon are leading the charge this year.
Spotlight: USC
USC has two losses, which raises eyebrows, but they’re not out of it yet. If the Trojans can win out—including a critical showdown with Oregon—they could make a compelling playoff case.
ESPN Analytics puts their playoff odds at 15%, trailing Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. Not a lock, but not hopeless, either.
Enigma: Iowa
Iowa’s quietly taken four of their last five, with their only loss a close one to Indiana. They’ll have to prove themselves down the stretch, though.
Games against Oregon and USC loom large. ESPN Analytics gives Iowa less than a 1% chance to win out, so their path is about as tough as it gets.
SEC Giants and Dark Horses
The SEC is its usual gauntlet. Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M are up front, but Vanderbilt and Missouri aren’t out of it.
Spotlight: Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s got some work to do if they want to impress the committee. Their win over LSU was a good start, but they’ll need more statement victories.
If they beat Missouri, their CFP odds jump to 49%. Lose, and those chances plummet to 14%.
Enigma: Missouri
Missouri’s in a similar boat. They’ve got a loss to Alabama and not much else on the résumé.
Their best win was a double-overtime thriller against Auburn. If they want to stay relevant, they’ll need to beat Vanderbilt and show they can hang with the SEC’s best.
Independent and Group of 5 Teams
It’s never easy for independents and Group of 5 teams to break into the CFP, but South Florida and Notre Dame are making some noise.
Spotlight: South Florida
South Florida has the best shot of any Group of 5 team to make the CFP, with a 45.9% chance according to ESPN Analytics. Wins against Boise State and Florida help, but the road ahead isn’t easy.
They’ve still got tough games against Memphis, Navy, and UAB. Nothing’s guaranteed.
On the Cusp: Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s win over USC bumped them up to No. 12 in the CFP projection. It’s basically must-win mode from here on out.
The Irish have a 69.2% chance to win out—the best in the country. If undefeated Navy keeps it up, Notre Dame could pick up another ranked win down the stretch.
Conclusion
The 2025 College Football Playoff race is really heating up. Every game feels like it matters as teams fight for a spot in the top 12.
This year’s system is a bit more forgiving. Even teams with two losses still have a shot at making the playoff.
It’s worth keeping an eye on the big matchups and how things shift each week. If you want deeper breakdowns or just love the drama, check out ESPN’s College Football Playoff Bubble Watch.
