College Football Bowl Projections 2025: Key Teams Eyeing Postseason Glory

As the college football regular season winds down, fans and analysts are buzzing with speculation and excitement. With 72 teams already locked in for the 82 available postseason slots, and 20 others clawing for a chance, the stakes feel sky-high.

This weekend brings several crucial matchups that could decide bowl eligibility and shake up the College Football Playoff picture. It’s the kind of chaos that makes this sport impossible to ignore.

High-Stakes Matchups for Bowl Eligibility

Three winner-take-all duels are set to determine bowl eligibility:

• Penn State at Rutgers
• Georgia Southern at Marshall
• Arkansas State at Appalachian State

But that’s not all—fourteen other five-win teams are fighting for their postseason lives this weekend:

• Kentucky (5-6) at Louisville (7-4)
• Alabama (9-2) at Auburn (5-6)
• Ole Miss (10-1) at Mississippi State (5-6)
• Florida State (5-6) at Florida (3-8)
• Kansas (5-6) at Utah (9-2)
• Colorado (3-8) at Kansas State (5-6)
• UCF (5-6) at BYU (10-1)
• Oregon State (2-9) at Washington State (5-6)
• Temple (5-6) at North Texas (10-1)
• Army (5-5) at UTSA (6-5)
• Rice (5-6) at USF (8-3)
• Louisiana (5-6) at Louisiana-Monroe (3-8)
• Texas State (5-6) at South Alabama (4-7)
• Ohio (7-4) at Buffalo (5-6)

Potential Alternatives and Playoff Structure

If there aren’t enough 6-6 teams to fill all the bowl games, the NCAA will dip into teams moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision. Missouri State (7-4) is basically first in line, while Delaware (5-6) could get a nod if they handle UTEP (2-9) at home.

This is just the second year with the 12-team College Football Playoff. The highest-ranked five conference champs and the top seven at-large teams make the cut.

The top four teams get first-round byes and play in the Cotton, Orange, Rose, and Sugar bowls on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. Teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20.

If the Big Ten and SEC champs earn byes, they’ll end up in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively. That’s the setup, at least for now.

Key Bowl Matchups and Dates

Ahead of bowl season, a few games and dates already stand out:

• Playoff Dec. 19, 2025 – 7 Ole Miss vs. 10 Alabama
• Playoff Dec. 20, 2025 – 6 Oregon vs. 11 SMU
• Playoff Dec. 20, 2025 – 5 Texas Tech vs. 12 North Texas
• Playoff Dec. 20, 2025 – 8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Notre Dame
• Cotton Dec. 31, 2025 – 3 Indiana vs. Oregon/SMU winner
• Orange Jan. 1, 2026 – 4 Georgia vs. Texas Tech/North Texas winner
• Rose Jan. 1, 2026 – 1 Ohio State vs. Notre Dame/Oklahoma winner
• Sugar Jan. 1, 2026 – 2 Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss/Alabama winner

Additional Bowl Games

Beyond the playoff, there’s a whole lineup of other bowl games with plenty of intrigue:

• LA Dec. 13, 2025 – Pac-12 6 Arizona vs. MWC 1 San Diego State
• Salute to Veterans Dec. 16, 2025 – Sun Belt Troy vs. MAC Miami (OH)
• Cure Dec. 17, 2025 – Sun Belt James Madison vs. G5/Open UConn
• 68 Ventures Dec. 17, 2025 – Sun Belt Louisiana vs. Open Buffalo
• Myrtle Beach Dec. 19, 2025 – Sun Belt Old Dominion vs. Open Kennesaw State
• Gasparilla Dec. 19, 2025 – SEC/ACC/AAC Florida State vs. Open USF
• Famous Idaho Potato Dec. 22, 2025 – MWC Utah State vs. MAC Marshall
• Boca Raton Dec. 23, 2025 – Open Coastal Carolina vs. Open Jacksonville State
• New Orleans Dec. 23, 2025 – Sun Belt Southern Miss vs. CUSA Western Kentucky
• Frisco Dec. 23, 2025 – G5 Texas State vs. G5 Central Michigan
• Hawai’i Dec. 24, 2025 – MWC Hawaii vs. American/Other California

The final week of the college football regular season is almost here. It promises a wild mix of nerves and big moments.

Plenty of teams are right on the edge of bowl eligibility. Every single game could tip the scales.

Curious about possible matchups? The New York Times article digs deep into bowl projections and the schedule.