CFP Top 12 Projections: Rivalry Week Impact on Rankings

Week 13 in college football didn’t shake up the top 12 playoff projections much, but there’s still plenty for the CFP committee to think about. With the fourth of six rankings on the horizon, questions hang in the air—like whether Oregon’s win over USC can push the Ducks past Ole Miss, or if Utah’s nail-biter against K-State opens the door for Miami’s return to the top 12.

Let’s dig into the latest projections and what’s really driving the current rankings.

Ohio State: The Most Complete Team

Ohio State’s still sitting pretty at the top, and honestly, it’s hard to argue. The Buckeyes looked dominant against Rutgers, even without their star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.

Sure, their schedule strength lags behind the other top teams, but their efficiency on both sides of the ball is tough to ignore.

Key Wins and Remaining Challenges

They’ve got wins over No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois, plus a big road victory at Washington that the committee seems to love. With the Big Ten championship in their sights, the looming Michigan game feels like the real test.

Indiana: Consistent Dominance

Indiana’s built a reputation for steady, impressive play, racking up double-digit wins against Oregon and top-five marks in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their only real stumbles came away at Iowa and Penn State—never easy places to play.

Path to the Big Ten Championship

They can lock in a Big Ten title shot with a win over Purdue, or if Ohio State slips. That last regular-season matchup with their in-state rivals? It could be everything for their playoff hopes.

Texas A&M: Clinging to an Undefeated Record

Texas A&M’s still undefeated, but it hasn’t always been pretty. Their close win over No. 9 Notre Dame stands out, even though their SEC schedule hasn’t exactly been brutal.

The Aggies lead ESPN’s strength of record metric, but the upcoming Texas game will probably decide their SEC championship fate.

Strength of Schedule and Efficiency

They’re just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But with one of the SEC’s weaker schedules, a loss to Texas could really shake things up for them.

Georgia: Building a Strong Résumé

Georgia’s stacked up quality wins—Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas—you name it. Even with a head-to-head loss to Alabama, their overall body of work is hard to dismiss.

SEC Championship Implications

Georgia clinches an SEC title game spot if Alabama or Texas A&M lose. Their last game against Georgia Tech? It’s a good gut check before the postseason.

Texas Tech: Highly Regarded by the Committee

Texas Tech’s been making noise with big wins over Utah and BYU. Their only loss, to Arizona State, doesn’t sting as much thanks to a strong defense and solid résumé.

First-Round Bye in Sight

A win against West Virginia should lock up a first-round bye for the Red Raiders. Even if they end up as Big 12 runner-up, falling out of the playoff seems unlikely at this point.

Ole Miss: A Comparable Résumé

Ole Miss has some nice wins, especially over Oklahoma and Tulane. Their strength of record is right there with Oregon’s, but that head-to-head over a top-10 Oklahoma team gives them a little boost.

SEC Championship Prospects

If Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl and both Texas A&M and Alabama slip, they’re in the SEC championship. That last game against Mississippi State? No room for mistakes.

Oregon: A Statement Win

Oregon’s convincing win over USC helped their case, no question. They’ve only beaten one CFP top 25 team, but recent performances—despite injuries—have looked solid.

Big Ten Playoff Picture

Oregon’s still got a shot at the Big Ten championship, but it all comes down to their final game against Washington. Win that, and they’re probably in—depending on what happens elsewhere.

Oklahoma: Strong Defensive Showings

Oklahoma’s racked up wins over Tennessee, Alabama, and Missouri, keeping them in the top 12 conversation. Their defense has carried the load, especially with an offense that’s only No. 43 in efficiency.

Final Regular-Season Game

Their last game against LSU is a must-win. A loss there would be brutal for their playoff dreams.

Notre Dame: Consistent Dominance

Notre Dame’s riding a nine-game winning streak, with only narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami. The Irish have leaned on a tough running game and a defense that just doesn’t quit.

Potential Playoff Scenarios

The final game against Stanford could get interesting. Notre Dame can’t afford any late slip-ups—and they’ll be keeping an eye on other results that might shuffle the rankings.

Alabama: Struggles on the Ground

Alabama’s had trouble running the ball, and it’s starting to show. Still, wins like the one over Georgia keep them in the mix.

Iron Bowl Showdown

The Iron Bowl with Auburn is do-or-die for Alabama’s SEC title hopes. Drop that one, and their playoff shot takes a big hit.

BYU: Overcoming Challenges

BYU’s road win at Cincinnati and a head-to-head victory over Utah are bright spots. Their only loss, to Texas Tech, is still a sore point, but overall, they’re hanging in there.

Final Test Against UCF

The last game against UCF is huge. BYU needs that win to keep their playoff chances alive.

Utah: Narrow Escapes

Utah barely got by K-State and has losses to both Texas Tech and BYU. Wins over Arizona State and Cincinnati help, but they’re still right on the edge of the playoff picture.

Crucial Game Against Kansas

Utah’s final game against Kansas is critical. The Jayhawks are fighting for bowl eligibility, so there’s a lot on the line for both teams.

If Utah wants to keep their playoff dreams alive, they’ll need a strong showing. No room for a slow start here—they’ve got to bring it.

The CFP committee is about to drop its latest rankings, and honestly, the tension is real. Every team’s last games could shake up the whole playoff picture.

Curious about the current projections and wild scenarios? You can check out the full article on ESPN for the nitty-gritty details.