BYU’s College Football Playoff Chances: Are They Undervalued?

As the college football season edges toward its finale, the College Football Playoff (CFP) race gets wild. Only three weeks left, and teams are clawing for those precious spots—every game feels like it could flip everything upside down.

Recently, Austin Mock took a hard look at playoff chances for several teams, including BYU and Vanderbilt. Let’s break down what’s going on with these bubble teams and what could end up making or breaking their CFP dreams.

BYU’s Playoff Hopes: A Tightrope Walk

BYU is in a tricky spot. Mock’s model gives them a 33 percent shot at the CFP.

They’ve got one less loss than Utah and even beat them head-to-head, but somehow, even with an 11-1 record, BYU’s not exactly a shoo-in. The model paints a picture full of maybes and what-ifs.

Key Factors Influencing BYU’s Chances

Mock’s model gives BYU a slight edge over Utah. But there are a few things that could tip the scales:

• Strength of Schedule: Utah, apparently, has an easier path to win out. That could matter a lot.
• Big 12 Championship: BYU pretty much has to win the Big 12 title game. A loss there? They’re left hoping other teams stumble.
• Comparison with Other Teams: Weirdly, a 10-2 Vanderbilt or a 9-3 Texas could still look better than an 11-2 BYU, depending on what happens next.

If BYU slips up against Texas Tech or Cincinnati, their odds nosedive. The committee’s history—think SMU’s big drop after losing the ACC title game—doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for BYU’s case.

Vanderbilt’s Uphill Battle

Vanderbilt’s playoff odds recently fell, dropping from 28 percent to 15 percent. They need to win out to even have a shot, but their resume just doesn’t pop.

Challenges Facing Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s got a few things working against them:

• Lack of Impressive Wins: Their best wins are over LSU and Missouri. Not exactly eye-popping.
• Current Rankings: Right now, they’re sitting behind five other two-loss teams. That says a lot about how the committee views them.
• Upcoming Games: Beating Tennessee is a must. Even then, they’ll need some chaos ahead of them to sneak in.

Other Contenders and Scenarios

It’s not just BYU and Vanderbilt in the mix—other teams are lurking, each with their own headaches and hopes. Oklahoma, for example, saw their playoff hopes jump to 52 percent after a big win over Alabama.

The Sooners have to win out against Missouri and LSU if they want to stay in the conversation.

Impact of Recent Games

Some recent results really shook things up:

• Oklahoma: That Alabama win was huge, but they can’t afford a stumble now.
• USF and Duke: Both teams lost and their playoff dreams are basically toast—USF’s at 2 percent, Duke’s at 1 percent.
• USC vs. Oregon: This game is massive. If USC wins, their odds jump to 79 percent. If Oregon pulls it off, they’re almost guaranteed a spot at 93 percent.

The Committee’s Role and Potential Controversies

The CFP committee’s decisions are always under the microscope. They say conference title losses won’t hurt teams, but honestly, history says otherwise.

BYU, for instance, could get dinged for a second loss in the Big 12 title game, even if it’s to a top-five team. That would sting, and plenty of fans would call it unfair.

Potential Debates and Outcomes

There are a few scenarios that could get people talking:

• BYU vs. Other Teams: If BYU ends up 11-2, comparing them to teams like Vanderbilt or Texas could get messy.
• Impact of Close Games: The result of a nail-biter in the Big 12 title game could sway everything.
• Historical Precedents: The SMU situation after their conference title loss is still fresh in people’s minds. The committee doesn’t always stick to its word.

Conclusion: The Final Stretch

The college football season is closing in on its final weeks. The fight for those coveted CFP spots? It’s getting wild.

BYU and Vanderbilt are hanging around the bubble. Each has its own set of headaches, and honestly, no one’s sure how it’ll shake out for them.

Mock’s model gives us a glimpse of where things stand right now. But let’s be real—everything could flip depending on what happens in these last few games.

If you want to dig deeper, check out the full analysis by Austin Mock on the New York Times Athletic.