31 Teams with a Shot at the College Football Playoff
College football’s shaking things up this fall. The College Football Playoff (CFP) is bumping up to a 12-team format, which is a pretty big deal.
This new setup guarantees each Power 4 conference champ a spot—so the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC all get their shot. Notre Dame, if they finish in the top 12 on Selection Day, also gets an automatic bid.
With more playoff spots, the field is deeper and the competition’s honestly about as tough as it’s ever been. Who’s got a realistic chance? We’re diving into 31 teams that could make the CFP this season, using ESPN Analytics and committee history as our compass.
Top Contenders for the College Football Playoff
ESPN Research says 28 teams have at least a 10% shot at the CFP this year. The door’s open for more teams, but snagging one of those 12 spots is still no small feat.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes are back in the mix with a 75.7% chance to make the playoff and a 17.1% shot at the title. Julian Sayin returns at quarterback, and the roster’s stacked.
They’ll face their biggest challenge on Oct. 31 at USC, right after a tough road game versus defending champ Indiana. That stretch could make or break them.
Texas Longhorns
Texas is riding high too, with a 69.9% chance to make the playoff and a 13.2% chance at the national title. They’ve got a slight home-field edge in their Week 2 clash with Ohio State.
If they pull off a win there—and Ohio State then wins the Big Ten—Texas’s résumé gets a nice boost.
Other Strong Contenders
There’s a pack of teams just behind the favorites, and they’re all in with a shot. Their rosters are strong, and a few lucky bounces could land them in the playoff picture.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame sits at a 74.4% chance for the playoff and 10.5% for the title. The big test? November 7 against Miami.
They’ll need to handle business against weaker teams and show up strong against Miami and BYU if they want to stay in the hunt.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon’s got a 64.7% playoff shot and a 9.2% chance at the title. Dante Moore is back at quarterback, which helps their case a lot.
The game to circle is Nov. 7 at Ohio State. That one could decide everything for them.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia’s playoff odds are 63.9%, with a 9.6% chance at the title. Their defense is as tough as ever, and Gunner Stockton is quietly solid at quarterback.
They’ve got a huge game on Nov. 7 at Ole Miss. Lose there, and things could get dicey.
Dark Horse Candidates
Not all the action’s at the top. Some dark horses could shake things up if they get hot at the right time. It’s not impossible—just tough.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana, last year’s champs, have a 57% shot at the playoff and a 6.6% chance to repeat. They lost Fernando Mendoza, but the team’s still tough.
Their showdown with Ohio State on Oct. 17 looms large. That one feels like a must-win.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami’s odds: 61.4% for the playoff, 5.4% for the title. They’ve got key players back and seem ready for another run.
Biggest hurdle? That Nov. 7 trip to Notre Dame. Win there, and who knows?
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss might only be 16th in computer rankings, but they have a 22.8% playoff chance and a 1.3% shot at the title. The roster’s got talent, and the schedule is a gauntlet.
Sept. 19 against LSU is the one everyone’s watching. Emotions will be high, and so will the stakes.
Teams on the Bubble
Some teams are right on the edge, just waiting for a chance to break through. They can’t afford many mistakes if they want in.
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M clocks in with a 39.1% playoff chance and a 3.4% shot at the title. They’ve got a bunch of stars back from last year’s 11-win squad.
The Nov. 27 game against Texas could be the decider. That one’s got drama written all over it.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina’s in the mix, too. Coach Shane Beamer thinks 15 to 20 teams could win it all, and honestly, he’s not wrong.
The Gamecocks will have to survive a brutal SEC slate if they want to make some noise. Not easy, but hey, stranger things have happened.
The expanded College Football Playoff format shakes things up for teams everywhere. Now, each Power 4 conference champion gets a guaranteed spot.
That means the competition? It’s fierce. Sure, Ohio State, Texas, and Notre Dame still look like favorites, but there’s always room for a surprise or two.
Teams on the bubble and long-shot contenders keep things interesting. Every single game feels like it matters just a little bit more this season.
For a detailed analysis and the full list of 31 teams with a shot at the CFP, check out ESPN College Football.
