2026 College Football Playoff Semifinals: Expert Picks and Betting Predictions

The 2025-26 college football season is barreling toward its climax, and the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinals are almost here. This year, fans get two wild matchups: Ole Miss vs. Miami in the Fiesta Bowl and Oregon vs. Indiana in the Peach Bowl.

Honestly, these games are shaping up to be the kind you remember for years. Not only do they decide who gets a shot at the national championship, but the stakes and storylines are off the charts. With odds and expert takes flying around, let’s see what could go down in these much-hyped clashes.

Fiesta Bowl: Miami vs. Ole Miss

The Fiesta Bowl opens the CFP semifinals on Thursday, Jan. 8. It’s Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels, and it should be a show.

The latest college football odds have Miami favored by 3.5 points, with the over/under at 52.5. Both teams can light up the scoreboard, so expect fireworks.

Miami’s Path to the Semifinals

Miami’s season has been something to watch. They bring a balanced attack, and their quarterback has really led the charge.

The defense has made a habit of shutting down opponents. Key wins over top-ranked teams pushed them here, and you can feel the confidence building.

Ole Miss’s Road to Glory

Ole Miss is the underdog story this time. Their offense? It’s relentless and quick-striking, keeping defenses on their heels all year.

While their defense isn’t quite up to Miami’s level, they’ve come through in big moments. The Rebels have a knack for making things interesting when it counts.

Peach Bowl: Oregon vs. Indiana

The other semifinal is set for Friday, Jan. 9. Oregon Ducks take on the Indiana Hoosiers in the Peach Bowl.

Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite, and the over/under sits at 48.5. This one’s got all the makings of a defensive slugfest, honestly.

Oregon’s Defensive Prowess

Oregon’s defense has been a wall this season. Their shutout over Texas Tech in the quarterfinals was just the latest example.

The Ducks love to control the line and make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Their offense can switch gears, too—sometimes pounding the ball, other times airing it out. They’re tough to pin down.

Indiana’s Impressive Run

Indiana’s ride to the semifinals has been defined by a gritty defense and just enough offense to get it done. Holding Alabama to three points? That says a lot.

They’re balanced on offense and relentless on defense. It’s made them a nightmare matchup for just about anyone.

Betting Insights and Expert Predictions

If you’re thinking about betting, the latest odds and expert predictions are worth a look. DraftKings puts Indiana as the +130 favorite for the national title, with Miami at +310, Oregon at +320, and Ole Miss at +600.

Honestly, it’s a toss-up this year. The competition’s fierce, and upsets feel almost inevitable.

Key Betting Trends

• Miami vs. Ole Miss: The total’s ticked up by a point since opening, hinting at a possible shootout.
• Oregon vs. Indiana: The total’s also up by a point, but SportsLine’s model actually favors the under (48.5), projecting 46 points in nearly 60% of its simulations.

Expert Picks and Model Predictions

SportsLine’s model runs every FBS game 10,000 times. Since 2024 started, its money-line picks are 31-19. Not bad at all.

For Oregon vs. Indiana, the model really likes the under (48.5) and expects a defensive struggle. It’s got firm picks for both CFP games, so bettors might want to have a look before making any calls.

Looking Ahead to the National Championship

The winners of the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl are set to clash in the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida.

It’s the last stop in a season that’s thrown out its fair share of twists and breakout moments. Honestly, who knows what we’ll see when the final whistle blows?

If you’re hungry for more predictions or want to check every pick for every game, take a look at SportsLine.

The experts there break things down with a model that’s earned its stripes, so you might just find what you need to make your own calls—or just enjoy the chaos a little more.