2026-27 Week 5 College Football Playoff and Bowl Predictions
Week 5 of the 2026 college football season brought thrilling matchups and a few surprises, shaking up the postseason picture. Big wins by Ohio State, Missouri, and Alabama have added heat to the College Football Playoff (CFP) race. The 2026 season also brings new CFP selection criteria, including automatic bids for Power 4 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 6 team. Here’s a look at the latest projections and what they could mean for bowl season.
Key Highlights from Week 5
Week 5 featured three crucial ranked matchups. Ohio State picked up a significant road win against Iowa, strengthening its position in the CFP race.
Missouri stunned college football with a dominant 28-point victory over top-10 Florida, while Alabama shut down Mississippi State with a commanding 33-point win.
Ohio State’s Road Victory
Ohio State’s win over Iowa showed the team’s resilience and ability to perform under pressure. It should boost their confidence and strengthen their standing in the CFP rankings.
Missouri’s Upset Against Florida
Missouri’s unexpected win over Florida has reshaped the playoff picture. A 28-point victory is a strong sign that Missouri is a team to watch this season.
Alabama’s Dominance
Alabama’s 33-point win over Mississippi State showed off its strength on both offense and defense. The performance keeps the team firmly in the national championship conversation.
New CFP Selection Criteria
The 2026 season brings new CFP selection criteria, designed to make the playoff field more inclusive and competitive. The key changes include:
- Automatic bids for Power 4 conference champions
- Automatic bid for the highest-ranked Group of 6 team
- Seven at-large bids for the highest-ranked remaining teams
- Notre Dame guaranteed a spot if ranked in the top 12
The four highest-ranked teams will receive first-round byes, whether or not they win their conference championship. The other eight teams will play first-round games at the campus sites of Seeds 5 through 8.
First-Round Games
The first-round games are scheduled for December 18 and 19, with matchups based on the latest CFP rankings. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach project the following first-round games:
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama
- No. 11 UCLA at No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Alabama
- No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana
- No. 9 Utah at No. 8 BYU
- No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 BYU
Key First-Round Matchups
Several first-round games could be especially compelling. Boise State’s potential matchup with Texas or Alabama would be a serious test.
Ohio State could face either UCLA or LSU, making that game one to watch, too.
Quarterfinals and Semifinals
The quarterfinals are scheduled for January 1 at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The semifinals will be held January 14 and 15 at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Allstate Sugar Bowl, respectively.
Projected Quarterfinal Matchups
Bonagura and Schlabach project that the quarterfinal matchups could include:
- No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Indiana
- No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Miami
- No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
- No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Georgia
- No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Georgia
- No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Potential semifinal matchups include:
- No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
- No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
- No. 4 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia
- No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas
CFP National Championship
The CFP National Championship is set for January 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The projected matchups are:
- No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Georgia
- No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 2 Georgia
Either matchup would feature powerhouse teams battling for the top prize in college football.
Bowl Season Festivities
Bowl season starts with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on December 12 and wraps up with the CFP National Championship on January 25. The schedule includes several major games:
- Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on December 30
- Capital One Orange Bowl on January 14
- Allstate Sugar Bowl on January 15
Notable Bowl Games
Some of the notable bowl matchups this season include:
- Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Tulsa
- Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Auburn vs. South Florida
- New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State
- TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Ole Miss
- Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs. Oklahoma
These games offer fans plenty of chances to catch exciting football and memorable moments.
Conclusion
As the 2026 college football season moves along, the race for CFP spots and bowl berths is heating up. With new selection criteria and plenty of exciting matchups, it could be a season to remember. Stay tuned for more updates and projections as the college football season reaches its final stretch.
For more detailed projections and updates, visit the full article on ESPN.
