2025 College Football Conference Championship Scenarios Explained

The 2025 college football season has been wild, honestly. There are so many teams still fighting for their conference championship dreams.

Now that Week 14 is almost here, everyone’s glued to the clinching scenarios. Each conference has its own rules and tiebreakers, which just adds to the chaos—sometimes in a good way, sometimes not so much.

Let’s dig into how the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, MAC, American, Mountain West, and Conference USA races might shake out. If you want every detail, check out the full breakdown over at ESPN.

SEC Championship Scenarios

The SEC is as cutthroat as ever. Heading into Week 14, it’s still wide open for a few teams.

Alabama

Alabama clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win

Texas A&M

Texas A&M clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • Alabama loss and Ole Miss loss

Georgia

Georgia clinches a spot in the championship game with:

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  • Alabama loss
  • Texas A&M loss

Ole Miss

Ole Miss clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • Texas A&M loss and Alabama loss

Big Ten Championship Scenarios

The Big Ten’s got its own drama brewing. Several teams are still hanging on to hope.

Indiana

Indiana clinches a spot in the Big Ten championship game with:

  • Win
  • Ohio State loss

Ohio State

Ohio State clinches a spot in the Big Ten championship game with:

  • Win
  • Indiana loss and Oregon loss

Oregon

Oregon clinches a spot in the Big Ten championship game with:

  • Win and Ohio State loss

Michigan

Michigan clinches a spot in the Big Ten championship game with:

  • Win and Indiana loss
  • Oregon loss

Big 12 Championship Scenarios

The Big 12 is, well, a little bit of a mess. That’s not a bad thing for fans.

Texas Tech

Texas Tech clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • ASU loss

BYU

BYU clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • ASU loss
  • TTU loss and ASU win

Arizona State

Arizona State clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win and BYU loss
  • Win, TTU loss and Utah loss

Utah

Utah clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win, TTU loss, BYU win and ASU win

ACC Championship Scenarios

The ACC is as unpredictable as ever. Here’s what’s at stake for the top teams:

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Virginia

Virginia clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • SMU loss, Pitt loss and UNC win

SMU

SMU clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • Pitt loss, Duke loss, UVA win and UNC win
  • Pitt loss, Duke loss, UVA win, NCSU win, BC win and finish higher than Georgia Tech and Miami in SportSource Analytics ranking
  • Pitt loss, Duke loss, UVA loss, UNC win, BC win and finish higher than Georgia Tech and Miami in SportSource Analytics ranking

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win and UVA loss
  • Win and SMU loss

Duke

Duke clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win, Pitt loss and SMU loss
  • Win, Pitt loss, UVA loss and UNC win
  • Win, Pitt loss, UVA loss, NCSU win and finish higher than Miami in SportSource Analytics ranking

Miami

Miami clinches a spot in the championship game with:

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  • Win and UVA loss and Duke loss and SMU win
  • Win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA loss and NCSU win
  • Win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA loss and UNC win and SYR win
  • Win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA loss and UNC win and BC win and finish higher than GT and SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking
  • Win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA win and NCSU win and SYR win
  • Win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA win and NCSU win and BC win and finish higher than GT and SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking
  • Win and SMU loss and Duke win and UVA loss and NCSU win
  • Win and SMU win and Duke win and UVA loss and NCSU win and finish higher than Duke in SportSource Analytics ranking

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Pitt win and UVA loss and SMU loss
  • Miami win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA loss and NCSU win
  • Miami win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA loss and UNC win and BC win and finish higher than Miami and SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking
  • Miami win and SMU loss and Duke loss and UVA win and NCSU win and BC win and finish higher than Miami and SMU in SportSource Analytics ranking

MAC Championship Scenarios

The MAC has a few teams still in the hunt. Here’s what needs to happen:

Toledo

Toledo clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win (Saturday)

Miami (OH)

Miami (OH) clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win (Saturday) and Central Michigan win (Saturday)

Ohio

Ohio clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win (Friday) and Northern Illinois win (Friday) and Miami (OH) loss (Saturday) and Central Michigan win (Saturday)
  • Beat Central Michigan in Team Rating Score Metric

Central Michigan

Central Michigan clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win (Saturday) and Ohio loss (Friday) and Miami-OH loss (Saturday)
  • Win (Saturday) and Kent State win (Friday) and Miami (OH) loss (Saturday)
  • Win (Saturday) and Kent State loss (Friday) and Miami (OH) loss (Saturday) and Beat Ohio in Team Rating Score Metric

American Championship Scenarios

The American is still up for grabs. Here’s how the contenders can get in:

Tulane

Tulane clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • With a loss by either North Texas or Navy if it has the highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams
  • Losses by both North Texas and Navy if it has the second-highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams

North Texas

North Texas clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • With a loss by either Tulane or Navy if it has the highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams
  • Losses by both Tulane and Navy if it has the second-highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams

Navy

Navy clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win and loss by either Tulane or North Texas
  • With a loss by either Tulane or North Texas if it has the highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams
  • Losses by both Tulane and North Texas if it has the second-highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams

South Florida

South Florida clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win and loss by two of Tulane/North Texas/Navy if it has the highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams
  • Win and losses by all of Tulane/North Texas/Navy if it has the second-highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams

East Carolina

East Carolina clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win and loss by two of Tulane/North Texas/Navy if it has the highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams
  • Win and losses by all of Tulane/North Texas/Navy if it has the second-highest composite computer average of the 6-2 teams

Mountain West Championship Scenarios

The Mountain West is heading for a wild finish. Here’s how it could all play out:

San Diego State

San Diego State clinches a spot in the championship game with:

  • Win
  • Losses by Boise State and UNLV
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