2025-26 College Football Playoff Semifinal Odds and Bracket Analysis

The College Football Playoff (CFP) is heating up with some unexpected results that have fans buzzing. The quarterfinals have already delivered shocking upsets—No. 10 Miami (FL) took down No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 6 Ole Miss toppled No. 3 Georgia.

These outcomes have really shaken up the playoff landscape. There’s a fresh sense of intrigue in this year’s competition, and honestly, the semifinals can’t get here fast enough.

Quarterfinal Shocks: Miami and Ole Miss Upset the Giants

The CFP quarterfinals kicked off with a bang. Underdogs Miami (FL) and Ole Miss pulled off some wild upsets.

Miami, a 7.5-point underdog, stunned Ohio State with a 24-14 victory on New Year’s Eve. Then Ole Miss, a 6-point underdog, edged out Georgia in a high-scoring shootout, winning 39-34 on New Year’s Day.

It just goes to show—college football never really sticks to the script. Any team can rise up when it matters.

Miami (FL) vs. Ohio State

Miami’s win over Ohio State was all about defense and timely offense. The Hurricanes clamped down on the Buckeyes, holding them to just 14 points.

That kind of resilience is tough to ignore. Miami’s ability to seize the moment as an underdog makes them a real threat in the semifinals.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia

Ole Miss’s victory over Georgia was a rollercoaster. Their offense was clicking, and the defense came through when it had to.

This win pushed Ole Miss into the semifinals and put a spotlight on just how deep and talented this roster is. Not sure many saw that coming.

Semifinal Showdowns: Odds and Predictions

Now we look ahead to the semifinals. BetMGM’s odds give us a taste of what’s in store, and these games feel like toss-ups in some ways.

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon

First up, No. 1 Indiana meets No. 5 Oregon. Indiana is a 4-point favorite, with the over/under set at 47.5.

Indiana’s been perfect this season at 13-0. Their attack is balanced, and the defense is stout—honestly, they’re tough to bet against.

But Oregon’s no pushover. They fought through plenty of adversity, finishing 11-1, and they’ve got the grit to give Indiana a real test.

This has all the makings of a close, maybe even classic, semifinal. Both teams have a shot at the title game, and who knows—maybe another upset is brewing?

Full College Football Playoff Rankings

Here’s how the CFP rankings stack up right now:

• No. 1 Indiana (13-0)
• No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
• No. 3 Georgia (12-1)
• No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)
• No. 5 Oregon (11-1)
• No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1)
• No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)
• No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)
• No. 9 Alabama (10-3)
• No. 10 Miami (10-2)
• No. 11 Notre Dame (10-2)
• No. 12 BYU (11-2)
• No. 13 Texas (9-3)
• No. 14 Vanderbilt (10-2)
• No. 15 Utah (10-2)
• No. 16 USC (9-3)
• No. 17 Arizona (9-3)
• No. 18 Michigan (9-3)
• No. 19 Virginia (10-3)
• No. 20 Tulane (11-2)
• No. 21 Houston (9-3)
• No. 22 Georgia Tech (9-3)
• No. 23 Iowa (8-4)
• No. 24 James Madison (12-1)
• No. 25 North Texas (11-2)

First-Round Highlights

The first round of the CFP had its own share of drama. Some teams covered the spread in style, while others kept things tight on the scoreboard.

Here are the Against the Spread (ATS) winners and over/under results:

• Alabama +2.5 – Over 42.5
• Miami (FL) +3 – Under 48.5
• Ole Miss -16.5 – Under 57.5
• James Madison +20.5 – Over 47.5

Alabama vs. Opponent

Alabama showed up big in the first round. As a 2.5-point underdog, they not only covered but helped push the total over 42.5.

The Crimson Tide’s offense was rolling, and the defense held firm. It feels like they’re always dangerous in the playoffs.

James Madison’s Surprise

James Madison covering a 20.5-point spread and hitting the over? That was a real surprise.

Their performance just adds to the sense that anything can happen in this playoff. It’s a wild ride, and honestly, that’s what makes it fun.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

The national championship is almost here. Stakes? Yeah, they’re sky-high.

Semifinal matchups look wild. Expect some real drama and maybe a few surprises.

Are you all about the underdogs, or is it the top seeds for you? Either way, the College Football Playoff should leave us with stories to talk about for a long time.

Want a deeper dive on odds and analysis? Here’s the full article on Yahoo Sports.